BLOG: Computer breakdown of UMass' postseason chances

  • UMass' Carl Pierre, right, shoots over Georgia's E'Torrion Wilridge Dec. 16, 2017 during a men's basketball game at the Mullins Center in Amherst. GAZETTE STAFF/SARAH CROSBY

@MattVautourDHG
Published: 12/18/2017 6:37:52 PM

With UMass above .500 following two strong wins, I’m breaking out the Path to Postseason blog again. The plan is to do it after each game. I’ll keep doing it as long as UMass stays above, at or close to .500. A team can get a postseason berth to the CBI below .500 but you need to be .500 or better to get into the NIT which is the standard for this.

UMass Current Record: 6-5

RPI – 136 - According to RPI Forecast

KenPom - 130 -

Best Possible record heading into A-10 Tournament - 26-5, 18-0

Worst possible record heading into A-10 Tournament: 6-25, 0-18

Bracketology Appearances: None

Methodology

I’m using both RPIForecast.com and TeamRankings.com’s projections as they have similar formats. At some point I may combine or average their numbers but for now they’ll be separate. If UMass’ status improves I’ll add more factors.

For each of the projections:

If UMass’ win projection is 60 percent or higher, that’s a projected win (W).

If UMass’ win projection is 40 percent or lower that’s a projected loss (L).

If UMass’ win projection is between 40-60, that’s basically a toss-up (?)

RPI Forecast.com

Projected Wins – 11

Projected Losses – 5

Projected ?s - 4

Remaining games:

Dec. 20 Georgia State – W

Dec. 22 Maine – W – Safest projected win 95 percent

Dec. 30 at SBU - L

Jan. 3 GMU - W

Jan. 6 at Dayton - L

Jan 10 La Salle - W

Jan. 14 St. Joe’s - W

Jan 17 at Rhode Island L – Most likely loss 15

Jan. 20 Saint Louis – W

Jan. 24 at La Salle - ?

Jan 27 at Fordham - W

Jan. 30 Rhode Island -  L

Feb. 3 Dayton - ?

Feb. 10 at Saint Joseph’s - ?

Feb. 14 George Washington - W

Feb. 17 at Davidson - L

Feb 21 VCU - ?

Feb. 24 at George Mason - W

Feb. 28 at Richmond - W

March 3 vs. Duquesne -  W

TeamRankings.com

Team Rankings does a little more with conference stuff.

Chance to win Atlantic 10 regular season title: 2 percent

Chance to win Atlantic 10 tournament: 4 percent     

Projected A-10 Seed: 6 –has jumped from 10 to 6 since the beginning of the season and 8 to 6 since before the Providence game

Projected Wins – 11

Projected Losses – 6

Projected ? - 3

Dec. 20 Georgia State – W

Dec. 22 Maine – W (97 percent highest projected win)

Dec. 30 at St. Bonaventure - L

Jan. 3 GMU – W

Jan. 6 at Dayton - L

Jan 10 La Salle W

Jan. 14 St. Joe’s -W

Jan 17 at Rhode Island – L (10.8 percent lowest projected win likelihood)

Jan. 20 Saint Louis – W

Jan. 24 at La Salle – L (38.1 percent) this is different from RPIForecast, which has it as a ? (41 percent)

Jan 27 at Fordham - W

Jan. 30 Rhode Island - L

Feb. 3 Dayton - W

Feb. 10 at Saint Joseph’s - ?

Feb. 14 George Washington - W

Feb. 17 at Davidson L

Feb 21 VCU - ?

Feb. 24 at George Mason?

Feb. 28 at Richmond - W

March 3 vs. Duquesne -W

Analysis - UMass isn’t close to the NCAA Tournament picture in terms of its computer numbers and the struggling Atlantic 10 leaves limited options for big RPI wins.

But the NIT certainly seems like something in reach with a strong conference run.




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