NORTHAMPTON — Snow forecast Tuesday for much of Massachusetts turned out to be overoptimistic after the bulk of the storm stayed too far south to bring anything but a dusting to Hampshire County.

Up until Monday morning, forecasters had “pretty high confidence” the storm, moving west to east, would dump 8 to 12 inches of snow over most of southern New England, National Weather Service meteorologist Andy Nash said Tuesday. Meteorologists create forecasts by looking at the output from over 100 computer weather models, he said, and will favor a scenario predicted by a majority of the models.

During the day Monday, the computer models shifted, with more indicating the storm would take a more southerly track.

“We’re only talking 50 to 70 miles, but that shift in models meant a big change in the forecast,” Nash said.

In Hampshire County, it was a snow day with no snow for schoolchildren as schools and municipal offices had already made the call to close for the day by the time the forecast changed.

The bulk of the snow was falling Tuesday south of a line from just north of Boston to Worcester and Hartford. Parts of Connecticut were reporting 8 to 12 inches by late morning, Nash said, with lesser amounts forecast for Rhode Island, southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod.

By early Tuesday morning, local weather observer Dave Hayes declared the storm a “total bust,” with Belchertown and Ware the area’s snow capitals at no more than 2 inches.

The Associated Press reported that more than 1,000 flights had been canceled Tuesday morning, mostly at airports in the New York City area and in Boston. Accidents were reported across the region, and several states were banning tandem and empty tractor-trailers from highways.