Miami gave their NCAA chances a huge boost with its win at Duke.
LEADING OFF
With the Super Bowl in the rearview mirror, college basketball moves to center as March Madness looms just a month away. There's plenty to still be determined between now and Selection Sunday. Fittingly there are great games this week, particulatrly on Wednesday.
GAMES OF THE DAY: MONDAY: UConn at Louisville, 7 - The Huskies need wins to stay in the NCAA Tournament picture.
TUESDAY: Florida at Kentucky - Florida doesn't get talked about much as an NCAA Tournament contender. If they win Tuesday they will.
WEDNESDAY: Best night of college hoops so far this season Duke at North Carolina, 9 p.m. - Nuf ced. Kansas at Baylor, 7 p.m. -Could two Big 12 teams make the Final Four. These two would be candidates Georgetown at Syracuse, 7- Georgetown is lurking. Are the Hoyas a second weekend NCAA team?
THURSDAY: St. Mary's at Gonzaga, 11 - The Gaels whipped the Zags earlier. Gonzaga hunting for redemption Tennessee State at Murray State - The Racers don't play too many teams with winning records. This is one of them.
FRIDAY: Harvard at Penn, 7 -The Crimson would make themselves hard to catch with a win.
SATURDAY: Michigan State at Ohio State, 6- The next in a long line of great Big Ten games this season Baylor at Missouri, 1:30 - Back end of a challenging week for the Bears Virginia at North Carolina, 1 - San Diego State at UNLV, 4- The Mountain West is top heavy and both of these schools are in position to make an NCAA run.
SUNDAY: Stony Brook at Vermont, noon - Could be a preview of America East championship
UNDEFEATED: Murray State
WINLESS: Binghamton
UMASS PATH TO POSTSEASON
With projected results (W,L, or ?) are based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com
By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins. Currently: 17-6
LOSSES: FSU, Charleston, Miami, La Salle, Duquesne, URI
BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10: 24-6
WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10: 17-13
Date - Opponent - (Expected according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A ? is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) Feb. 8 vs. St. Bonaventure, (W) Feb. 11 at Saint Joseph’s, (L) Feb. 18 vs. La Salle, (?) Feb. 21 vs. Xavier, (?) Feb. 25 at Dayton, (L) Feb. 29 at Temple, (L) Mar. 3 vs. Rhode Island, (W)
Prognosis: Two projected (W) wins . Three projected (L) and two (?). A winning season has been clinched already. One maybe two more probably assures CBI or CIT. Three wins I think gets UMass to at least the NIT.
Question I don't know the answer to: Could UConn miss the NCAA Tournament a year after winning it?
Fearless predictions: UNC over Duke. Missouri over Baylor.
BUZZER BEATERS
I'm starting to think this might be Calipari's year.
I'll admit it. I didn't think UMass would win this game. On paper it looked like a bad matchup. But the Minutemen proved me wrong, with a terrific first half and enough gumption to hold on in the second half against a good team.
Anyway...
Like last year, for every UMass game this season, I'll be giving out
three stars to the top three performers from the Minutemen and keeping
track of who earns the most three-start points over the course of the
season.
I'm putting a little extra weight on No. 1. So a No. 1
star is worth five points. A No. 2 is worth three and a No. 3 is worth
two.
Three Stars from UMass vs. George Washington
No. 1 - Terrell Vinson - In every recent UMass win, Vinson has made a big play. On Saturday he made a lot of them.
No. 2 - Chaz Williams - The sophomore point guard's 35-foot 3-pointer highlighted another strong game.
No. 3 -Javorn Farrell/Freddie Riley - Both players offered their best efforts in a while giving the Minutemen a big lift off the bench.
Season to date points:
Chaz Williams - 46 Terrell Vinson - 37 Raphiael Putney 29
Jesse Morgan 20
Sean Carter - 18
UMass was included because the Minutemen are in first place in the Atlantic 10. They're actually tied with La Salle and St. Bonaventure, but at 56, UMass has the best RPI of the three so it gets the imaginary automatic bid.
Lunardi explained here:
This week, the top bubble story is the Atlantic 10. The best team in
the conference is Temple, which lost at home to Dayton (which lost at
home this past weekend to -- gulp -- Rhode Island). The perceived best
team is Xavier, which wasn't particularly competitive in losses to
Dayton and Saint Louis.
Conclusions: You can't keep
Temple out (too good); can't keep Xavier out (too many good non-league
wins); can't keep Saint Louis out (better profile than every team on the
"First Four Out" list, plus the win at Xavier); and can't keep Dayton
out (wins against all three A-10 bubblers, plus Alabama, Minnesota and
Mississippi).
For good measure, none of these four
currently lead the conference. That would be one from among La Salle,
Massachusetts and St. Bonaventure (each with a 5-2 league mark). UMass
gets the AQ this week by virtue of the RPI tiebreaker, giving the
Atlantic 10 F-I-V-E teams in today's bracket.
Will it hold? Almost certainly not. Is it justified, based on results to date? Absolutely.
He was asked about UMass and the Atlantic 10 in an online chat and said the following:
Nate (Woburn, MA): Joe, great to see UMASS in this week's bracketology. Based on the SOS do they have to go no worse that 6-3 and make the SF of the A10 to solidify a spot in the tourney? Joe Lunardi: UMass is a bit of a placeholder right now, as someone among Mass, Bona and La Salle had to be included as co-leaders at 5-2. It's not likely to hold for any of them, as none are very close on the at-large board.
then...
Steve (Amherst): Whats your take on the A10, who do u see making the tourney when the season wraps up? Joe Lunardi: Temple and the conference tournament winner are the only "locks" I'd give at this point. The rest will be a month-long scramble.
Craziest Atlantic 10 season ever? Maybe. In the same season that Dayton beats Xavier at Dayton, previously winless Rhode Island upsets the Flyers there. Xavier, Dayton and Temple were the league's favorites to make the NCAA Tournament, but La Salle, St. Bonaventure and UMass are in first place. It could be a crazy last few weeks.
GAMES OF THE DAY: MONDAY: Princeton at Penn -Not a great slate today and this is always a good one.
TUESDAY: Kansas State at Iowa State - Is there a scarier place to for ranked teams to play than Iowa State?
WEDNESDAY: Indiana at Michigan -
THURSDAY: SE Missouri at Murray State - One of the few teams above .500 that the Racers will play the rest of the year. FRIDAY: - I got nothing
SATURDAY: Kansas at Missouri - With the Tigers leaving the Big 12, this rivalr's future is in jeopardy. This could be a classic. Virginia at Florida State, Marquette at Notre Dame
SUNDAY: - Michigan at Michigan State -A nice appetizer before the Super Bowl.
UNDEFEATED: Murray State
WINLESS: Binghamton
UMASS PATH TO POSTSEASON
With projected results (W,L, or ?) are based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com
By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins. Currently: 16-5
LOSSES: FSU, Charleston, Miami, La Salle, Duquesne
Date - Opponent - (Expected according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A ? is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) Feb. 1 at Rhode Island, (W) Feb. 4 at George Washington, (W) Feb. 8 vs. St. Bonaventure, (W) Feb. 11 at Saint Joseph’s, (L) Feb. 18 vs. La Salle, (?) Feb. 21 vs. Xavier, (?) Feb. 25 at Dayton, (L) Feb. 29 at Temple, (L) Mar. 3 vs. Rhode Island, (W)
Prognosis: Four projected (W) wins . Three projected (L) and two (?). A winning season has been clinched already. One maybe two more probably assures CBI or CIT. Four wins I think gets UMass to at least the NIT.
Question I don't know the answer to:How good is UConn? Notre Dame?
Saint Louis coach Rick Majerus wasn't nearly as happy. He praised UMass's effort performance, but little else pleased him after the game and he delivered a memorable rant.
Asked about whether traveling back and forth to play Xavier on Wednesday before heading to Amherst had tired his team out, Majerus repeated a familiar complaint of his that Saint Louis doesn't geographically belong in the Atlantic 10.
If we really cared about the student athletes, and I think we try to, we don't belong in this league," he said. "I'm more concerned academically. The thing the travel compromises the most is their ability to get a good education."
But he wasn't ready to make travel an excuse for his team's poor play in the first half.
"I don't give a (expletive) how much travel you have. All you have to do is get your nose in the chest and defend," he said. "I don't care if we didn't shoot well. You can always defend. They played terrific with energy and effort. They played like they wanted to win. We played in the afterglow of a nice victory (over Xavier Wednesday) and that was it. We beat ourselves. Forget about the missed free throws of the turnovers. All that stuff is bull (expletive). We didn't come out and play. They exceeded us in intensity level and they won."
Despite entering the game 16-4, he didn't hold back his criticism of his players. He didn't think they appreciated the opportunity they had.
"You're 18, 19, 20 years old. A buddy of mine's cousin just died over in Afghanistan. Who knows how many kids will die there today and they're the same age. This is a game. They should want to play a game," he said. "It begins with me. I have to look at myself and say what didn't I do to provide the energy and effort that they need. Then they have to look at themselves."
He was frustrated with senior captain Brian Conklin for his early defense on Raphiael Putney and didn't think playing with a leg injury was an excuse.
"I don't care what his leg is. He's got some kind of leg injury. If you've got a leg injury, don't play. I'd rather have a handicapped guy covering him," Majerus said. "I used to coach wheelchair basketball. Those son of (expletives) came to play every night. The most rewarding experience of my life was coaching my wheelchair team and the Special Olympics that I ran and coached in Utah. I can get a a Special Olympian to get excited (to play). No derogatory remark to them. I'm just upset that (his current players) would not value the moment."
Majerus wasn't sure that some of his players even liked basketball.
"I may have a guy or two that don't play for the right reasons. College basketball is rife with it. They like being basketball players. They like being on the team, but they don't like basketball," he said. "But even if that's your deal in life, you have an obligation to your teammates and yourself. And someone gave you a scholarship. I've got three walk-ons that pay $46,000 a year. If I had any balls I would have played them."
I'll admit it. I didn't think UMass would win this game. On paper it looked like a bad matchup. But the Minutemen proved me wrong, with a terrific first half and enough gumption to hold on in the second half against a good team.
Anyway...
Like last year, for every UMass game this season, I'll be giving out
three stars to the top three performers from the Minutemen and keeping
track of who earns the most three-start points over the course of the
season.
I'm putting a little extra weight on No. 1. So a No. 1
star is worth five points. A No. 2 is worth three and a No. 3 is worth
two.
Three Stars from UMass vs. Saint Louis
No. 1 - Raphiael Putney - I've said it before and it continues to be true. Putney is getting closer and closer to star status. In the first half he was a good as he's ever been.
No. 2 - Chaz Williams - The sophomore point guard had a rough stretch early in the second half, but his free throw prowess down the stretch is weapon.
No. 3 -Terrell Vinson - Foul trouble limited his second half minutes, but every time he was in the game, he made momentum changing plays.
Season to date points:
Chaz Williams - 43 Terrell Vinson - 32 Raphiael Putney 24
Jesse Morgan 17
Sean Carter - 16
From the sounds of things, UMass is likely going to have its best crowd of the season. Students are back and there's buzz around a team with its best record in a while.
People are planning to show up to see if this Minuteman squad passes the sight test.
Unfortunately for UMass, this might be the worst time for it. If there's a bad matchup on the Atlantic 10 schedule for the Minutemen, especially without Cady Lalanne and Sampson Carter, it's Saint Louis. This UMass team is better and it's much more fun to watch than its recent predecessors. But nobody looks good against the Billikens. Rick Majerus is as good as anyone at neutralizing transition teams.
On top of that, without Lalanne, who has the potential to be one of UMass' best halfcourt players and has been a strong inside presence, the Minutemen are at a size disadvantage inside against a physical Billikens squad.
That said, among the many reasons I don't gamble on sports, is that I'm bad at predicting winners. But on paper this one looks like a tough one for UMass.
With Syracuse falling from the ranks of the undefeated, is Kentucky now the favorite?
GAMES OF THE DAY: MONDAY: Syracuse at Cincinnati - Can the Orange bounce back after loss No. 1 while still deal with the lack of Fab Melo? TUESDAY: San Diego State at Wyoming - How legitimate are the 16-3 Cowboys? This is a chance to find out. WEDNESDAY: Notre Dame at Seton Hall -Two Big East lurkers with a change to make noise in March. ND needs to prove it can win outside of South Bend.
THURSDAY: - Indiana at Wisconsin FRIDAY: - Harvard at Yale - On top of the rivalry factor, the Bulldogs are one of the few teams that might give the Crimson a challenge in the Ivy Iona at Fairfield - A preview of the Metro Atlantic title game? SATURDAY: - St. Mary's at BYU - After already beating Gonzaga, St. Mary's will have to tangle with its newest league challenger SUNDAY: -Michigan at Ohio State - On top of the rivarly, the Wolverines are good enough to make the game as good as the hype
UNDEFEATED: Murray State
WINLESS: Binghamton, Towson
UMASS PATH TO POSTSEASON
With projected results (W,L, or ?) are based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com
By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins. Currently: 15-5
LOSSES: FSU, Charleston, Miami, La Salle, Duquesne
Date - Opponent - (Expected according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A ? is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) Jan. 28 vs. Saint Louis, (L) Feb. 1 at Rhode Island, (W) Feb. 4 at George Washington, (W) Feb. 8 vs. St. Bonaventure, (W) Feb. 11 at Saint Joseph’s, (L) Feb. 18 vs. La Salle, (?) Feb. 21 vs. Xavier, (?) Feb. 25 at Dayton, (L) Feb. 29 at Temple, (L) Mar. 3 vs. Rhode Island, (W)
Prognosis: Four projected (W) wins . Three projected (L) and two (?). One wins clinches a winning season. Three probably assures CBI or CIT. Five wins I think gets UMass to at least the NIT.
Question I don't know the answer to:How many bids can the Atlantic 10 expect to get?
BUZZER BEATERS
Dexter Strickland's injury won't be huge interms of stats, but his absence certainly hurts North Carolina's title chances.
Like last year, for every UMass game this season, I'll be giving out
three stars to the top three performers from the Minutemen and keeping
track of who earns the most three-start points over the course of the
season.
I'm putting a little extra weight on No. 1. So a No. 1
star is worth five points. A No. 2 is worth three and a No. 3 is worth
two.
Three Stars from UMass vs. Richmond
No. 1 - Chaz Williams - After a rough one at Duquesne, Williams bounced back in strong fashion.
No. 2 - Jesse Morgan - He bounced back to lead the team in scoring
No. 3 -Maxie Esho/Sean Carter - Neither deserved to be left off this list after strong games by both players.
Season to date points:
Chaz Williams - 40 Terrell Vinson - 30 Raphiael Putney 19
Jesse Morgan 17
Sean Carter - 16
I'm running this again as the numbers are a little more relevant now:
I did this last year and I'm bringing it back again with updated numbers. I'm sure I'll run it again later in the season.
This is the seventh season that the Atlantic 10 has included 14 teams. I analyzed the standings from each of the first five seasons and came up with the following interesting (semi-interesting) facts and conclusions:
1. Average wins for a first place team is 14.0. Only twice - Temple each of the last two years - has a team won 14 games and not been the A-10 Tournament's No. 1 seed.
2. Average minimum wins to earn a first round bye (fourth place) is 10.2. Ten league wins has been enough to earn a bye in the first round of the A-10 Tournament four out of six seasons. Only Fordham in 2006-07 and GW last year have won 10 and not gotten a bye. Richmond in 2007-08 is the only team to get single digit wins (9) to earn a first round bye.
3. Average minimum wins to get a home game in the first round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament (eighth place) is 7.8. St. Bonaventure in 2009-10 and UMass last year are the only teams to have hosted a first round game with a losing record at 7-9.
4. Average minimum wins to make the Atlantic 10 Tournament (12th place) is 5.0. Only Richmond, which was 4-12 in 2006-07 and St. Joe's last year have ever got into the tournament with fewer than five wins. Only George Washington in 2007-08, was left out of the tournament with five wins. No team has ever been left out with six wins.
5. Only one team has ever gone 12-4 in A-10 play. Xavier in 2008-09. It was enough to win the league.
6. Xavier's 15-1 record last year was the first time a team had 15 wins in league play since the expansion to 14 teams. Three have gone 1-15.
7. The sixth place team has always had nine wins.
8. The team with the fewest league wins to earn an NCAA Tournament at-large berth was Saint Joseph's in 2008. The Hawks were 9-7 in regular season conference play.
9. The team with the most league wins not to get and NCAA Tournament at-large bid was UMass in 2007. The Minutemen won 13 A-10 games that year.
10. The teams with the fewest A-10 wins to get an NIT bid wes Rhode Island which went 7-9 in A-10 play in 2007-08 and Dayton, which was 7-9 last year.
11. No. 10 seed George Washington had the fewest league wins and still earned a postseason bid. The 2009-10 Colonials were 6-10 in conference play and went to the CBI.
LEADING OFF It's worth noting that a lot of times media outlets list coaches being on the hot seat because there always have to be some coaches on the hot seat. But that said former UMass coach Travis Ford is starting to land on a lot of those lists as Oklahoma State has underacheived this season. I have a hard time believing he'd get fired, but you never know. His recruiting struggles aren't helping.
That jacket however should certainly be on the hot seat.
UMASS PATH TO POSTSEASON
With projected results (W,L, or ?) are based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com
By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins. Currently: 14-4
Date - Opponent - (Expected according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A ? is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) Jan. 18 at Duquesne , (?) Jan. 21 at Richmond, (L) Jan. 28 vs. Saint Louis, (L) Feb. 1 at Rhode Island, (W) Feb. 4 at George Washington, (W) Feb. 8 vs. St. Bonaventure, (W) Feb. 11 at Saint Joseph’s, (L) Feb. 18 vs. La Salle, (?) Feb. 21 vs. Xavier, (?) Feb. 25 at Dayton, (L) Feb. 29 at Temple, (L) Mar. 3 vs. Rhode Island, (W)
Prognosis: One current win. Four projected (W) wins . Five projected (L) and three (?). Two wins clinches a winning season. Three probably assures CBI or CIT. Six wins I think gets UMass to at least the NIT.
GAMES OF THE DAY: MONDAY: No. 4 Baylor at No. 10 Kansas, 9:30 p.m. - Best Big 12 games of the season. TUESDAY: - No. 7 Michigan State at No. 13 Michigan, 7 - It's been a long time since this game was this good WEDNESDAY: - San Diego State at New Mexico - The Lobos are legitimate. Winning here would prove it. THURSDAY: - Vandy at Alabama, 7 - FRIDAY: - Ugh nothing SATURDAY: - No. 9 Missouri at No. 4 Baylor, New Mexico at No. 12 UNLV SUNDAY: - Virginia Tech at Virginia
UNDEFEATED: Syracuse, Baylor, Murray State
WINLESS: Binghamton, Towson
Question I don't know the answer to: What would UMass' record have to be in the Atlantic 10 to get NCAA consideration?
BUZZER BEATERS How much of a lift can Jarnell Stokes give Tennessee. The freshman looks pretty promising so far and the Vols could sure use the help.
The Minutemen sophomore point guard should be among the candidates to be the league's player of the week, which will be announced Monday. He averaged 20.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists. He was a perfect 18-for-18 from the free throw line with many of those coming in clutch situations late. It should help him that UMass won both of those games over well-regarded A-10 teams in St. Joe's and Charlotte.
His competitors include:
Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure - He averaged 25.0 points and 10.0 rebounds in two games. The Bonnies beat Dayton and lost to Xavier.
Darien Brothers, Richmond - Averaged 19.0 pts and 3.5 rebounds in wins over Temple and Rhode Island. The fact that the Spiders beat the Owls would boost him.
Khalif Wyatt, Temple - Averaged 22.0 ppg. in two games, a loss to Richmond and a win over Saint Louis.
I'm guessing it comes down to Williams and Nicholson. Nicholson had better numbers, but how much will the wins and clutch plays, especially free throws help Williams, vs. the fact that Nicholson's numbers came against two of the league's best teams.
Like last year, for every UMass game this season, I'll be giving out
three stars to the top three performers from the Minutemen and keeping
track of who earns the most three-start points over the course of the
season.
I'm putting a little extra weight on No. 1. So a No. 1
star is worth five points. A No. 2 is worth three and a No. 3 is worth
two.
Three Stars from UMass vs. Saint Joseph's
No. 1 - Chaz Williams - Another terrific game. He'll likely have a good shot at A-10 Player of the Week.
No. 2 - Raphiael Putney - He led the surge that erased UMass' early hole and added another memorable dunk to his resume.
No. 3 - Terrell Vinson/Sean Carter - Neither deserved to be left off this list after strong games by both players.
Season to date points:
Chaz Williams - 35 Terrell Vinson - 30 Raphiael Putney 19
Jesse Morgan 14
Freddie Riley - 14 Cady Lalanne -13 Sean Carter - 9
Javorn Farrell - 7 Maxie Esho -5 Sampson Carter -4
Gazette UMass sports beat writer Matt Vautour tracks the daily happenings in Minutemen sports across the board, as well as casting a wider view on college sports in general.
Gazette UMass beat writer Matt Vautour shares his thoughts in this blog about the Minutemen and college sports. E-mail him questions (to be published here), suggested restaurants in UMass travel cities or recommended reading links at: mvautour@gazettenet.com
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