Experts: State’s revenue boom will fade in next budget cycle

  • Gov. Baker’s budget chief Michael Heffernan (standing), Ways and Means Vice Chair Sen. Cindy Friedman, and Chairmen Sen. Michael Rodrigues and Rep. Aaron Michlewitz chatted before gaveling in the fiscal 2021 consensus revenue hearing on Wednesday. The annual hearing kicks off the process of crafting next fiscal year’s spending plan. STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE—

State House News Service
Published: 12/4/2019 11:38:07 PM

BOSTON — State budget writers began the fiscal year 2021 budget cycle Wednesday with a hearing at which the Department of Revenue, independent economists and think tanks sent the same message: Get ready for state tax revenue growth to start slowing down.

The annual consensus revenue hearing held by the Joint Committee on Ways and Means and the Executive Office of Administration and Finance is a chance for budget managers to probe the status of the local economy, take into account other factors and then guess about the availability of tax revenues for budget-building purposes.

Tax revenue growth estimates for the coming fiscal year ranged from a low of 0.8 percent to a high of 3.5 percent. By Jan. 15, state officials must pick a growth number and base their spending plans on it.

“Slower growth. Still growth, but slower growth, certainly not a recession. It’s been consistent with the message that we’ve been hearing for the last few months, that we are still growing, just at a slower rate,” Senate Ways and Means Chairman Sen. Michael Rodrigues said after the three-hour hearing.

At the outset of Wednesday’s hearing, rodriques and his counterpart, House Chairman Rep. Aaron Michlewitz, mentioned last year’s budget surplus but also the need to plan for years when the state is not as flush with cash.

“Revenue forecasting is difficult and an uncertain process. While we had a $1.1 billion surplus this past fiscal year, we must remain thoughtful as we plan for the future,” Michlewitz said.

For fiscal 2019, which ended June 30, Massachusetts government revenue collections totaled $29.693 billion, which was $1.1 billion or 3.8 percent above expectations. None of the groups that presented at Wednesday’s hearing projected similar growth for fiscal 2021.

Department of Revenue

Revenue Commissioner Christopher Harding told budget writers he is not projecting a recession to begin this fiscal year or next. He said there’s an “upside potential” beyond the fiscal 2020 revenue estimate of up to $250 million and pegged the midpoint of the agency’s fiscal 2021 revenue forecast at $30.805 billion — 2.3 percent growth in actual tax collections.

Taxpayers Foundation

Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation President Eileen McAnneny said the state appears poised to return to the slower revenue growth rates of fiscal 2016 and fiscal 2017, rather than the “supercharged” growth rates of fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2019.

The business-backed organization projected a more limited revenue growth rate — 2 percent in fiscal 2020 and 2.5 percent in fiscal 2021.

The “largest drag” on the forecast and the state’s economy as a whole, McAnneny said, is the tightening labor market as the workforce continues to age and the unemployment rate remains low. The taxpayers group cautioned that “anemic” growth in the number of jobs created “is likely to have a material impact on income withholding and sales tax revenue going forward.”

McAnneny said that if an economic downturn does hit, the federal government “may not be a reliable partner” given the combination of low interest rates and the rising national deficit.

“I think the federal government will just not be in a position to provide bailouts as they have done in other recessions,” she said.

Beacon Hill Institute

Economists at the Beacon Hill Institute offered the most cautious take, forecasting growth of 1.9 percent to $30.2 billion in fiscal 2020 followed by a 0.8 percent increase in fiscal 2021. William Burke, the institute’s director of research, said the state’s economic outlook “remains solid,” though growth is likely to moderate.

Whatever the eventual rate of growth ends up being, Rodrigues said he’s confident that the administration and Legislature will have the money they need to craft the state’s budget.

“Oh yeah. I’m confident there will be enough there. It’s still growth,” Rodrigues said. “I’ve been around long enough that I’ve been here when there’s been shrinkage, and we’re not moving in that direction.”

Even with slower growth projections, lawmakers will need to begin including substantial new K-12 education funding in next year’s budget, in keeping with a $1.5 billion, seven-year school funding reform plan Gov. Charlie Baker signed into law last week.

Baker is due to file his fiscal year 2021 budget proposal by Jan. 22.


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