When I walk our dog Libby, a little, shaggy, sweet-natured border terrier, through our neighborhood, I can safely predict two things. First, everyone will love seeing Libby. Second, Libby will love seeing everyone.

One of our neighbors calls Libby “The Mayor” because she offers all who she encounters — human, canine, or wildlife — a hardy, affectionate greeting, her whole body wriggling as if each being is the most delightful and important individual on the planet. Then she moves on, happy to explore more of the world that she loves to observe, roll atop, sniff, and lick.

While I’m confident about predicting Libby’s love for everyone and everything around her, I’m not always confident about predicting what might happen beyond our tree-lined streets.

For example, when I encountered fellow neighborhood walkers back in 2016, they often asked, “Does that awful man have a chance to win?” (Funny how everyone knew who the “awful man” was without saying his name.) I was pretty sure the awful man didn’t have a chance, but I always prefaced my answer with, “Anything’s possible, but …” before outlining my optimistic view that Americans wouldn’t be fooled by such an obvious con artist.

That prediction failed. Then, for the next four years, people asked me if Trump would get reelected. I firmly predicted that he wouldn’t, but I still added the caveat about infinite possibilities. I’m glad that my 2020 prediction proved accurate. But I didn’t have long to enjoy that result because my next prediction was that Trump would fade into obscurity and be the subject of nearly universal rejection once he left office.

Wow, was I ever mistaken on that one!

I thought Trump’s constant lies about the election would send his supporters scurrying in embarrassment. Wrong. They believed the guy who lost by seven million votes.

I thought Trump’s indefensible actions before, during, and after the January 6 insurrection would cause Republicans to hide in shame. Nope. They doubled down to prop up the guy who incited a violent attack against our nation.

I thought Trump’s multiple crimes would make elected Republicans condemn him and voters abandon him like the poison that he is. Not a chance. His recent indictment has only entrenched him as the leader of the Republican Party and clear frontrunner for the 2024 Republican presidential nominee. Even his current rape trial has only led to renewed rationalizations and deflections from the people who excused his confession to sexual assault in the infamous “Access Hollywood” recording.

I thought I’d be long since done writing about the awful man, but Republicans keep resurrecting him.

I’d like to think that the various upcoming indictments and legal entanglements headed Trump’s way would make him completely radioactive, but I can’t make that prediction. Nothing that he’s done so far impacts his core supporters, so why would they abandon him when presented with more evidence of his crimes?

Trump could campaign from jail, and he’d still garner 80-90% approval among Republicans. These are the same folks who look at the Fox News $787 million settlement with Dominion for lying about the election and continue to tune in and swallow every lie they’re fed. When the biggest liar and racist at the network finally got fired, these folks just dug in even further to fawn over Trump and move on to even fringier propaganda networks on the edges of their cable dials or the darkest crevices of the internet.

I’d love to predict that Trump can’t possibly win the 2024 Republican nomination. I wish Republicans would move within hailing distance of reality and nominate someone who’s not a crook. Unfortunately, the other Republican candidates are merely terrible. They aren’t deeply horrible enough to compete with the man who has perfected the art of failing upward to tighten his insane stranglehold on what long ago was a fatally flawed but marginally competent political party.

My predictions may be pretty iffy these days, but the best predictor I know is our little dog, Libby. Each morning when I toss a ball through the dewy grass, she shows her undeniable prognosticating skill. Even before my throw, she loves to guess the direction and sprint across our backyard to intercept the ball before it zips past her. She guesses correctly at an astonishingly high rate.

Sometimes, of course, she runs in the wrong direction. But she doesn’t give up or pout. She digs her little paws into the ground, pivots as quickly as she can, and gallops after the ball wherever it goes, happy as ever. Then she predicts again and is correct far more often than I am as I try to foresee what might happen in the crazy world around us.

When Libby had lifesaving surgery to remove a particularly nasty intestinal tumor, her veterinarians predicted that she might live another year even with her daily chemo pill. She’s in remission and holding strong two years later. Libby isn’t just good at making predictions. She’s also fantastic at defying predictions.

As the famous quote goes, “The best way to predict the future is to create it.” Let’s create a world where good dogs live long and happy lives while criminals, con artists, and propaganda networks finally get tossed away.

John Sheirer is an author and teacher from Florence. His latest book is the award-winning, “Stumbling Through Adulthood: Linked Stories.” Find him at JohnSheirer.com.]]>