WILLIAMSBURG — The future of the climate in the Northeast will be one with increasingly high temperatures and more intense precipitation, with less biodiversity, poison ivy, ticks and invasive species. But it will also be a future where artichokes grow in Chesterfield.

That’s according to Toni Lyn Morelli, a research ecologist from the Northeast Climate Adaptation Center at UMass Amherst, who kicked off a four-part series of forums on Sunday called “Our Climate and Energy Future.” The first talk, which drew about 30 people to the Anne T. Dunphy School, focused on how climate change will affect New England.

According to current climate models provided in Morelli’s presentation, the impacts of climate change will exacerbate trends the state has seen the past few years — more heavy rain, more drought conditions and more invasive species.

Massachusetts has experienced an average year-round temperature increase of three degrees, which is higher than the global rate of 2.5 degrees. For a place that reaches 20 degrees in the winter, she said, this is a concerning number, with models projecting a seven-degree increase by the end of the century.

“You can think about what it means to have a lot of rain in the winter. It’s miserable. I commute a lot, and there is a big difference between 31 degrees and 33 degrees when you’re outside and it’s precipitating. Like it’s miserable to be out in 33 degree rain” but “kind of wonderful” to be out in freezing point snow, she reflected, also mentioning the slippery driveways that will result.

This increase will feature 40 to 60 days of the year with temperatures over 90 degrees, fewer snow days, and more severe impacts to infrastructure due to flooding.

Then of course, there is the cultural element which is being stripped away, as Morelli says she associates the sadness of climate change with the loss of wintery weather.

“In Massachusetts and in New England in general, winter is really important. It’s just part of our cultural identity, and it is warming fastest in winter,” she said. “When I think about the loss of snow, I think about our kids and grand kids, and not being able to do this in Massachusetts for much longer.”

Temperature increases have led to a shorter window of time for snow to form on the ground, resulting in ecological consequences.

For example, lack of snow will interfere with the albedo effect, in which sunlight is reflected from snowy surfaces leading to slower warming. Without the snow, the atmosphere will retain heat, resulting in increasing temperatures for the region.

Freezing points kill off pests, including ticks and the emerald ash borer, a kind of beetle, who are now more likely to survive and reproduce in the absence of freezing periods even as little as three to five days, Morelli said.

Native mammals and plants will be affected by the warming trends, as “it’s actually colder for a lot of the plants and animals when there’s no snow. We’re kind of in this worst case scenario in that we lose the snow because of occasional warm ups, but it’s cold enough where a lot of biological systems can’t handle it, and that seems likely to have a threshold response,” she said.

Unpleasant native species such as poison ivy will continue to proliferate. That’s because the plants prefer high the carbon dioxide levels currently in the air. “If you’ve noticed poison ivy getting worse, it’s not in your imagination,” said Morelli.

Lynx and moose will be among those affected in the transition to warmer winters. Morelli provided footage acquired through her research, in which a moose is shown dying of winter tick, a deadly parasite which is thriving off the new temperature environment.

The warm weather also invites invasive species, which Morelli defined as “non-native species that are problematic,” adding that there are many non-native species that don’t cause problems. She referred those in attendance to the work of her colleague Jenica Allen, who has online maps available and a database of species migration trends.

Heavy rain, drought

Morelli provided models showing projections for “more rainfall, and increased droughts,” adding that in 15 of the last 20 years, the region has seen more rainfall than the 20th century average. She describes current trends as exhibiting less frequent rain with more intense events, and examples of droughts having taken place in the region in 2016 and 2019.

While temperatures have consistently risen across the board, rises in precipitation have been more scattered, with Massachusetts and the wider Northeast trending toward wetter conditions.

“We’re a wet place getting wetter,” she said, and has resulted in increased groundwater levels since the 70s.

“It doesn’t all have to be dire,” Morelli said in response to a Chesterfield resident who shared that because of the increase in temperature changes, he was able to grow something that he was “amazed came to fruition.”

“That was an artichoke, that I can only attribute to the fact that the temperature change is so dramatic that I was able to start this plant and produce, which to me says something, because ... typically you’d be lucky if you could grow a tomato, never mind something that’s exiled.”

Action to take

Modes of action Morelli recommended were to become informed and talk about climate change.

“Most Americans hear about climate change, so they vaguely think it’s happening, but they don’t think about it too hard,” she said, and recommended the book “Saving Us” by Christian climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe as a means to initiate conversations on the topic.

Toward the end of her presentation Morelli began edging into themes for upcoming forums, such as the costs associated with going green, and urged participants to “buffer” against the impacts of climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“The fewer greenhouse gas emissions we can put out there the better chance of us having a future that’s like the past,” she said.

Upcoming forums

The schedule for the remaining three forums, all of which take place on a Sunday at 2 p.m. at the Dunphy school, includes:

■Oct. 6, “How to Save Money with Energy Upgrades,” will outline federal and state energy incentives for businesses and residents, featuring representatives from the Green Energy Consumer Alliance as well as the Sponsors of Mass Save.

■ Oct. 20, “Your Electricity Bill 101,” will feature a National Grid representative walking attendees through their bills.

■ Nov. 3, “Our Electricity Future,” will include a discussion about interconnectivity, microgrids and power sharing.

The forums are sponsored by Indivisible Williamsburg and the Williamsburg Energy Committee.

Samuel Gelinas can be reached at sgelinas@gazettenet.com.