PATH TO POSTSEASON

Every week on the blog this football season, I'll project each UMass
game based on expectations and how it affects the Minutemen's chances
of reaching the postseason.

* A projected win (W) means - based on rankings, venue etc. The Minutemen should be considered the favorite.

* A projected loss (L) means the Minutemen would be considered the
underdog in the game, that a UMass win would be considered an upset.

* A (?) means the game is too close to call right now.

I'll adjust the projections based on UMass' performance and the performance of the opponent as the season progresses.

IN THE BOOKS - 2-1

Sept. 5 at Kansas State  LOSS  -

Sept. 12 vs. Albany WIN -

Sept. 19 vs. Rhode Island WIN -

Date - Opponent - (Expected result on paper)

Sept. 26 vs. Stony Brook (W) - The Sea Wolves haven't shown anything that would make an upset seem likely.

Oct. 10 at Delaware (?) - The Blue Hens go to William & Mary this wee, which should be a test of how legitimate either of those teams really are.

Oct. 17 vs. New Hampshire (?) - New Hampshire has back-to-back easy wins (Dartmouth, Towson) before playing Villanova on Oct. 10

Oct. 24 at Richmond (L) -Hofstra was no match for the mighy Spiders.

Oct. 31 at Maine (W) -Notice the status change here. Maine blew a lead and lost to Albany. The Black Beats have yet to play well.

Nov. 7 vs. Northeastern (W) - The Huskies are terrible.

Nov. 14 vs. James Madison (L) -  The Dukes have shown well so far.

Nov. 21 at Hofstra (W) - Status change here too. Any preseason optimism surrounding the Pride looks a little unfounded now.

Prognosis: UMass is 2-1 with five projected wins now, three projected losses, and two toss-ups. The Minutemen have proven capable of beating bad teams and Maine and Hofstra look fairly lousy now. UMass still has to prove itself as a good road team, but Maine and Hofstra have yet to prove themselves anywhere.

So if the Minutemen can hold serve on projected wins they'd likely need to get at least two victories from the uncertain group or the projected losses to get to 8-3 which would assure them a bid.

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