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JERREY ROBERTS

David Pakman is host of the nationally syndicated radio program “Midweek Politics” at WXOJ-LP in Florence.

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KEVIN GUTTING

Tim Carpenter of Florence is national director of the Progressive Democrats of America.

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GORDON DANIELS

Jay Fleitman of Northampton faces Tom Wesley of Hopedale in the Republican primary next month in his bid to unseat Democrat U.S. Rep. Richard Neal of Springfield.

Amid the ever-changing political subject du jour - the possible construction of an Islamic community center near ground zero in New York, an aide to President Obama criticizing progressive Democrats, Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch giving $1 million to the Republican Governors Association - there's been one consistent theme running through the media for months.

It's this: Two years after Obama was elected president and Democrats strengthened their hold on both houses of Congress, the Democrats are running scared, convinced they're facing a drubbing in elections this November, as the recession lingers and voter anger grows.

Republicans, meantime, are said to be feeling increasingly confident, attacking Obama's policies across the board and wondering how many seats they're likely to pick up in Congress and in governors' mansions.

But here the view is less clear-cut.

A challenging terrain

Local Democrats and Republicans, as well as independent voters, say Republicans are likely to pick up seats in Congress in November, as the majority party traditionally loses some clout in mid-term elections. But Democrats are not cowering in fear, and Republicans say Massachusetts - despite Scott Brown's upset win in the special Senate election last January - remains a challenging place for the party to do battle.

"We can't take any elections this fall for granted," says Tim Carpenter, the director of Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), a national advocacy group with over 100,000 members. "At the same time, we're out to challenge the status quo in our own party ... we don't believe simply electing Democrats is the answer. We want to make the national party more progressive."

Carpenter, a longtime activist who lives in Florence, says his group has thrown its weight behind a number of new Democratic candidates for Congress, including David Segal of Rhode Island, a state legislator running for the seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy. Segal backs the issues important to PDA - better wages for working people, additional health insurance reform including a public option, and curbs on corporate power and influence on the economy and politics.

In Carpenter's view, the Obama administration has weakened its hand by hewing too closely to the political center, losing support from the left while getting none from the right. He was irritated but also somewhat encouraged, he says, when Robert Gibbs, the president's chief spokesman, took a shot last week at progressives and liberals - Gibbs referred to them as "the professional left" - by saying that their criticism of the president undermined him and ignored the difficulty of trying to govern in a polarized political climate.

"(Gibbs') remarks show that we're having an impact on the administration," says Carpenter. "But we have to wonder why they're not tougher on the Tea Baggers and congressional Republicans."

The Tea Party effect

David Pakman, who hosts the nationally syndicated radio program "Midweek Politics" at WXOJ-LP in Florence, says he doesn't see Democrats, at least in these parts, as overly worried. He notes that while some reports predict Democrats are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives this fall, others say their losses could be much more moderate.

"It's hard to know at this point," Pakman says. "It could be that voters will be put off by some of the more flat-out crazy candidates on the right, and people will stick with the [Democratic] incumbent."

For instance, Harry Reid of Nevada, the Senate majority leader, had been given up as politically dead early this year - until a Tea Party favorite, Sharron Angle, won Nevada's Republican Senate primary in June. Polls now show Reid slightly ahead of or tied with Angle, who has proposed phasing out Social Security and abolishing the Department of Environmental Protection.

But Pakman notes that there could be something of an enthusiasm gap in voting this fall, with progressive Democrats disillusioned by some of Obama's moves not bothering to go to the polls. Just last week, in the Colorado Senate primaries, 407,000 Republicans voted compared to 338,500 Democrats, despite the fact that the state has a roughly equal number of Republicans and Democrats.

"I'm disappointed with Obama on a lot of progressive issues," says Pakman, pointing to things like the administration's failure to jettison the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy on gays in the military. "At the same time I'm aware that you can't do everything you promise to do during a campaign."

Republicans encouraged

Valley Republicans are also predicting gains for their party this November, though they're hesitant to say their party will retake the House - or the Senate, for that matter. But they also believe the Obama administration has alienated a good chunk of the electorate by successfully shepherding its health care reform bill, expanding the role of the federal government, and not focusing more efforts on reviving the economy.

"There's a lot of dissatisfaction out there, a lot of concern about the economy," says John Andrulis, a longtime member of the Northampton City Republican Committee and a former Republican candidate for the state Legislature. Although Obama has said the economy collapsed because of mistakes and lapsed oversight by the administration of former President George W. Bush, Andrulis says that at this point the White House must take responsibility for economic problems - and that voters will recognize that this fall.

"There's a limit to how long you can blame your predecessor," says Andrulis. As he sees it, the economic stimulus legislation proposed by Obama and passed by congressional Democrats in early 2009 was "too slow getting off the ground," directing much of its funding not at jump-starting business but at bailing out state and local governments that lacked operating monies.

Fear and anger

Al Harazin of Amherst, who teaches political science and American history at Holyoke Community College, believes that 2010 is in some ways no different than mid-term elections of the past. If you're the majority party, he notes, "Typically you just try to hang onto as many seats as you can and hope for the best."

What's different this year, Harazin says, is the economy. "People are scared. It's not just that unemployment is officially about 10 percent and probably even higher - some people are working part-time at best, or they're worried they're going to lose their job." In that kind of climate, he says, voters could well take out their fear and anger on the party in power come November.

Harazin, who supported John McCain in the 2008 presidential election, says he'd like to see Republicans take back the House as a counterbalance to Democratic control of the White House and Senate. "Historically, I think you tend to see greater cooperation between the parties in that kind of situation," he says.

Democrats seen 'safe'

In Massachusetts, Scott Brown's surprising vault to the Senate in January energized state Republicans and prompted several to challenge the commonwealth's all-Democratic House membership. Tarah Breed, communications director for the Massachusetts Republican Party, says all but one of the state's 10 congressional districts have at least one Republican candidate running. In the 3rd District, held by U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern, there are five Republicans in the primary.

Closer to home, the longtime 2nd District representative, Richard Neal of Springfield, faces two Republican challengers, including Jay Fleitman of Northampton. Fleitman, who is making a campaign stop this morning at 8:30 at Northampton's Bluebonnet Diner, said in a Gazette interview earlier this year that he believes Neal, who's held his seat since 1989, is vulnerable. "It's been a great experience" meeting people on the campaign trail, Fleitman said in February. "A lot of people are looking for a change."

However, this week the Cook Political Report, a national polling organization, called all but one of the Massachusetts congressional seats "safe" for incumbent Democrats. The one exception, the report said, is the 10th District seat, which includes the South Shore, Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Rep. William Delahunt is retiring, leaving the seat up for grabs.

John Walsh, chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, agrees with that assessment. Asked about a possible lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters in the commonwealth this fall, Walsh said, "I'm confident that at the end of the day, they'll come out and support our candidates ... a guy like Richard Neal has been a real workhorse for his district, and voters recognize that."

Party fractures could hurt

Still, Democrats at the national level have been sounding the alarm for months, and some worry about fractures in the party between conservatives and progressives that could lead to Republican congressional gains. Earlier this summer, for instance, 100 House Democrats - including Neal - voted against a $33 billion supplemental bill, pushed by Obama, that would send30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan.

Tim Carpenter, of Progressive Democrats, said his group has been pressuring Neal and other Democratic legislators for weeks on the war issue, with weekly pickets outside their offices. "It's time for the Obama administration to end this war and redirect our resources to the problems we have here at home," he says.

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, of Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, warns that progressive Democrats upset with the party's conservative members should try to defeat them in primaries - but only in safe Democratic districts, not ones that could be taken by a Republican.

In a recent interview with Congressional Quarterly, Frank added that if progressives have a choice between a conservative Democrat and a Republican in November, they should vote for the Democrat "but stick voodoo pins in him ... that relieves your frustration and helps public policy."