The ever-shifting tariff landscape took a turn late Monday, as the U.S. agreed to pause tariffs on Canada for 30 days, several hours after agreeing to do the same with Mexico. China, meanwhile, was also preparing to talk trade with President Donald J. Trump about impending tariffs on its goods.

But local experts agree that should Trump move ahead with his tariff plan, residents will feel the economic pain up and down the Valley. A favorite meal at an area restaurant, a necessary car repair and specialty items at local stores will all jump in price should tariffs on goods from the three countries take effect in March.

It’s the almost immediate impact of a 10% tariff on energy resources from Canada, though, including its natural gas, crude oil and hydropower, and adding to the already high costs of heating homes, businesses and other facilities like schools and hospitals in Massachusetts, that worries Anna Nagurney, the Eugene M. Isenberg Chair in Integrative Studies at Isenberg School of Management at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

“That is going to be felt very, very quickly,” Nagurney said in a phone interview Monday. “That’s bad.”

And with some agricultural products coming from Canada, like cattle born there, the price for steaks and hamburgers is sure to rise, as will the cost of lumber, and consumer electronics, laptops, appliances and clothing, all of which arrives from China.

“We get half of our imports from Canada, Mexico and China,” Nagurney said. “They are our biggest trading partners and we need to work together. This is unsettling.”

While the decisions being made by President Donald Trump at the federal level could soon begin affecting consumers and businesses, earlier Monday the United States and Mexico reached an agreement to delay the 25% tariff on all Mexican imports for one month. That came after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to reinforce Mexico’s northern border with 10,000 members of the National Guard, to address drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl.

Katherine Schmeiser Lande, who chairs Mount Holyoke College’s economics department, was much more reticent about the possibility of impacts from tariffs, especially in light of Trump giving Mexico an additional month tariff free. With that, she said, it is impossible to ascertain “how serious” the U.S. president is.

“Price increases depend on what’s rolled out,” Lande emphasized. “Will it be a week? A month? We don’t know.”

Giving an example, Lande said a short-term tariff implementation may mean that a company such as General Motors may choose to keep prices stable, but tide over the time until the tariff is over. However, for some products even a short-term tariff may mean price increases, especially perishable food products, like avocados.

Adding to the complication was Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing retaliatory tariffs and making an appeal to Canadians to avoid buying American products, when possible.

“Retaliatory tariffs will cause further pain for U.S. producers and consumers,” Nagurney sad. “Before long, workers in the underlying supply chains will lose their jobs.”

Businesses to feel pinch

At the Amherst Area Chamber of Commerce, Executive Director Jacob Robinson said increased tariffs will be felt at the numerous locally-owned restaurants in Amherst, many of which source ingredients from Mexico and Canada, and have few options other than to raise menu prices and pass those costs onto their customers. Similarly, independent retailers that carry goods and specialty items from abroad will likely have to pay more to stock their shelves.

“The impact of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China could certainly have ripple effects in the Amherst area, particularly for businesses that rely on imported goods, construction materials and food products from these markets,” Robinson said.

He points to a report from Associated Industries of Massachusetts showing that the commonwealth’s annual trade with Canada in 2023, including agriculture, equipment and machinery and services, was $17.1 billion, while trade with Mexico tops $8 billion annually.

Likewise, since tariffs will affect the cost of materials like lumber, steel and electronics, developers and contractors in the region, and auto dealerships and repair shops, could see price shifts on vehicles and parts sourced internationally.

In fact, Nagurney observes components for cars, even those assembled in the United States, will be affected. “I worry about layoffs in the automotive sector. That will be big,” Nagurney said.

The chamber is providing advice to members, many of which are small businesses, about the proactive steps they can take. That includes communicating with customers in a transparent way about the price adjustments necessary to stay solvent, seeking alternative suppliers should there be disruptions to the supply chain and working with the Massachusetts Small Business Development Center on strategies. The chamber is also connecting business owners with policymakers and industry groups to ensure their voices are heard.

Other impacts

Short-term financial challenges will include price increases for alcoholic beverages, maple syrup and eventually the costs for housing, cars, clothes, laptops and smartphones.

Since primary imports into Massachusetts are machinery and oil, Lande imagines the Massachusetts consumer being mostly impacted by price hikes for both goods. Trump’s plan lays out a 10% tariff on Canadian oil, which she said would mean, “they can choose to hit us hard on that, and that would suck for the winter.”

In the scenario that tariffs become a long-term measure to replace the federal income tax, as Trump has repeatedly teased the possibility of doing, Lande said, “some would be hurt more than others,” as cars, produce and so-called “fast fashion” would predictably see the highest price hikes. Lande also sees China clapping back at the United States by taking legal measures through the World Trade Organization, which makes it illegal to tariff counties for reasons other than national security.

Lande also broadened the horizons of consequences to Trump’s ambitions. For example, his approach could potentially lead to an alliance between Mexico and China forming in the wake of what could be seen as American economic aggression on the global stage, just to name a single potential scenario.

While Lande waits to see the fallout, she explained one thing is certain for all political observers: tariffs are an inflationary measure.

Nagurney said tariffs have occasionally been used alongside quotas as a protectionist measure, such as nudging forward an industry in the early stages of development, or to protect a certain product, like when India placed export quotas on onions and garlic during the COVID pandemic.

After the inflation of recent years and the numerous supply chain disruptions, though, the imposition of tariffs will cause unnecessary harm, Nagurney said.

“Many consumers have suffered enough,” Nagurney said. “It’s time to give people a breather, not this kind of economic upheaval,”

Scott Merzbach can be reached at smerzbach@gazettenet.com. Samuel Gelinas can be reached at sgelinas@gazettenet.com.