The Fantasy Football Blog

Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Down to 65

peerless cut
Peerless Price (AP)

UPDATED: Thursday, 3:30 p.m.

NFL teams had to get their rosters down to 65 players today and a few notable cuts were made.

Atlanta let go of Peerless Price (WR) and second-year player Michael Jenkins (ATL-WR) is becoming more and more valuable each day. Price will likely catch on somewhere.

Cincinnati cut former No. 4 overall pick Peter Warrick (WR) who never lived up to the hype.
UPDATE: Warrick has since signed a deal with Seattle. Keep an eye on him in the first few weeks of the regular season. If he's on the field, he could prove a useful fantasy backup.

Chad Hutchinson (QB) was released by Chicago after starting two preseason games. Rookie Kyle Orton (CHI-QB) won the job after Hutchinson looked lost under center.

The Houston Texans cut Billy Miller (TE).

The final round of cuts are this Sunday, when all teams must get down to 53.

Also of note:
Eli Manning (NYG-QB) says his arm is fine and that he will play in Week 1.

I also received a question about the fantasy value of rookie Ryan Moats (PHI-RB) this week. Moats' value certainly went up with the announcement that Correll Buckhalter (PHI-RB) will miss the entire season with a knee injury. Moats is worth grabbing in deep fantasy leagues that require three starting running backs per week or as a handcuff if you own Brian Westbrook (PHI-RB). If Westbrook gets injured, Moats' value will skyrocket.

Check back here for updates in italics.
UPDATE: Tomorrow's fantasy column will focus on tight ends, kickers and teaam defenses.

Monday, August 29, 2005

Monday Updates for Aug. 29

mikeanderson
Mike Anderson (AP)

There was some news over the weekend to keep track of as we approach the regular-season opener Sept. 8.

It looks like Mike Anderson (DEN-RB) has locked up the Broncos coveted starting job, at least for Week 1. If you draft Anderson, try to handcuff him with Tatum Bell (DEN-RB).

Cedric Benson (CHI-RB) finally ended his holdout and became the last first-round draft pick to sign. Benson likely won't play early the season, but could be a second-half of the season sleeper if he can overtake starter Thomas Jones (CHI-RB).

Jerome Bettis (PIT-RB) suffered a calf injury in Friday's preseason game and the Steelers haven't updated his condition yet. He may miss the opener, which, along with Duce Staley's (PIT-RB) injury, would leave rookie Willie Parker (PIT-RB) as the Week 1 starter. Both Bettis and Staley could be back by Week 2.

The Chicago Bears have named Kyle Orton (CHI-QB) their starter in Week 1 to replace the injured Rex Grossman (CHI-QB), who will miss the entire season. Orton has looked servicable in the preseason, but is unlikely to be more than a mediocre fantasy backup this season.

Javon Walker (GB-WR) suffered a dislocated finger in Friday's game against New England. I wouldn't change his ranking as a top player at his position just yet.

Troy Edwards (WR) and Maurice Clarett (RB) were released from the Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos, respectively.

Also, I took part in a draft Sunday and wanted to post some of the picks for your reference. Here's how the first four rounds shaped up and some of my thoughts on a few selections:

Round 1
1. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD-RB)
2. Shaun Alexander (SEA-RB)
3. Peyton Manning (IND-QB)
4. Daunte Culpepper (MIN-QB)
5. Priest Holmes (KC-RB)
6. Willis McGahee (BUF-RB)
7. Edgerrin James (IND-RB)
8. Torry Holt (STL-WR)
9. Marvin Harrison (IND-WR)
10. Deuce McAllister (NO-RB)
Round 2
11. Corey Dillon (NE-RB)
12. Rudi Johnson (CIN-RB)
13. Donovan McNabb (PHI-QB)
14. Randy Moss (OAK-WR)
15. Julius Jones (DAL-RB)
16. Terrell Owens (PHI-WR)
17. Domanick Davis (HOU-RB)
18. Jamal Lewis (BAL-RB)
19. Ahman Green (GB-RB)
20. Clinton Portis (WAS-RB)
Round 3
21. Curtis Martin (NYJ-RB)
22. Chad Johnson (CIN-WR)
23. Kevin Jones (DET-RB)
24. LaMont Jordan (OAK-RB)
25. Michael Vick (ATL-QB)
26. Trent Green (KC-QB)
27. Steven Jackson (STL-RB)
28. Brian Westbrook (PHI-RB)
29. Kerry Collins (OAK-QB)
30. Jake Delhomme (CAR-QB)
Round 4
31. Joe Horn (NO-WR)
32. Tatum Bell (DEN-RB)
33. Tiki Barber (NYG-RB)
34. Brett Favre (GB-QB)
35. Tony Gonzalez (KC-TE)
36. Marc Bulger (STL-QB)
37. Warrick Dunn (ATL-RB)
38. Javon Walker (GB-WR)
39. Tom Brady (NE-QB)
40. Matt Hasselback (SEA-QB)

Thoughts: The biggest surprise was to see two WRs go in the first round and neither be Randy Moss. Also, getting Kevin Jones in the third round is a monster steal.

As for the rest of the draft, Stephen Davis (CAR-RB) dropped all the way into the 16th round. I guess the injury questions kept everyone away. Also, Chris Brown (TEN-RB) was taken ahead of Travis Henry (TEN-RB). It seems like it's 50-50 on which one is going to be selected first. There were still very good receivers left in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. Fifth: Reggie Wayne (IND-WR), Jerry Porter (OAK-WR), Andre Johnson (HOU-WR), Darrell Jackson (SEA-WR), Hines Ward (PIT-WR), Anquan Boldin (ARZ-WR), Plaxico Burress (NYG-WR), Nate Burleson (MIN-WR). Sixth: Michael Clayton (TB-WR), Steve Smith (CAR-WR), Drew Bennett (TEN-WR). Seventh: Roy Williams (DET-WR), Deion Branch (NE-WR), Laveranues Coles (NYJ-WR), Derrick Mason (BAL-WR).

Hope that helps some.

Friday, August 26, 2005

Friday Extras for August 26

In this week's fantasy football column, I warned to beware of good No. 2 wide receivers who change teams and become the go-to guy. Peerless Price (ATL-WR) was one who busted, Alvin Harper went from Dallas to Tampa Bay in 1995 looking to become a breakout star and struggled big-time. There are examples of this from virtually every year.

But there are exceptions to every rule. And this year's could be Plaxico Burress (NYG-WR). Burress has a few things going for him. For one, he's playing with Eli Manning (NYG-QB), who should progress into a good starter this year and (potentially) a great starter in the next few years. Secondly, Burress is going to a more wide-open offensive system. The Steelers like to pound the ball with the running game behind Duce Staley (PIT-RB) and Jerome Bettis (PIT-RB).

Last season, with both teams starting rookie QBs (Ben Roethlisberger for the Steelers) and Pittsburgh having much better WRs, the Giants attempted 475 passes to the Steelers' 358. This year, the gap may be even bigger and Burress should be the primary target. He'll be a No. 3 fantasy WR when you draft him, but he could turn into a strong No. 1 or 2.

DEEP SLEEPERS -- Some leagues start up to four WRs per team, which means that NFL team's No. 2 and No. 3 guys are needed to fill out your roster. Obviously, you need to be looking at potential sleepers in these leagues:
  • Antwaan Randle El (PIT-WR) is the most likely player to take over for Burress as the No. 2 for the Steelers, who may throw more now that Roethlisberger is in his second year. Randle El is undersized, but he's a great athlete and could be a game-breaker if he wins the job outright.
  • Tyrone Calico (TEN-WR) is one of those third-year guys who may make the leap. Calico is supremely talented and a big, big target. He missed the final 15 games of last season with a knee injury, but has been getting rave reviews in the preseason and could become Steve McNair's (TEN-QB) favorite target.
  • Joey Galloway (TB-WR) hasn't been an exciting pick for years, but he'll be steady if he remains healthy. You can assume 40-55 catches and five or six TDs, not bad for a spot starter you'll only use on bye weeks.

INJURY RISK -- Rod Smith (DEN-WR) and Jimmy Smith (JAX-WR) have been very steady and productive over the years. Neither has missed much time in recent seasons, but both scare me. It's not that they will definitely break down because of their respective ages (Rod is 35, Jimmy is 36), but their rankings at Nos. 18 and 19 among wide receivers feels high because of that risk. I'm not sure it's worth taking them where you must. If they fall to your third starter, you'll be getting much better value.

UPDATED CHEAT SHEETS -- Some more minor movement with Andre Davis (NE-WR) dropping off the list after being traded from Cleveland. Rookie Ryan Moats (PHI-RB) moved into Correll Buckhalter's (PHI-RB) spot after it was announced Buckhalter would miss the season. Mike Anderson (DEN-RB) seems to be at least the No. 2 guy in Denver, so he took over for Quentin Griffin (DEN-RB). I'm giving the Broncos situation one more week before dropping Tatum Bell (DEN-RB) way down and moving Anderson way up. Also, Antonio Gates' (SD-TE) numbers were dropped by 1/16th since he's suspended for Week 1 and Tim Rattay (SF-QB) took over for rookie Alex Smith (SF-QB) as the No. 30 QB, but with lower expectations, since he won't hold off the No. 1 overall pick.

INJURY UPDATES -- Keep your fingers crossed this weekend as Week 3 of the preseason is generally when the starters remain in the games the longest. If they get through this week, most will play very, very little in Week 4.

An ankle injury will sideline Lee Suggs (CLE-RB) for this weekend and his status for Week 1 is still up in the air. Suggs was expected to emerge from camp as the team's No. 1 back, but Reuben Droughns (CLE-RB) and William Green (CLE-RB) still have a shot. We could also be looking at running back by committee.

Check back here during the day Friday for injury updates in italics. The next new post will come Monday morning.

Wednesday, August 24, 2005

Buckhalter Done / Gates Update

buckhalterheadshot
Correll Buckhalter (AP)

UPDATED: Wednesday, 9 p.m.

After weeks of speculation, it became official today that Correll Buckhalter (PHI-RB) will miss the entire 2005 season. Rookie Ryan Moats will likely be the No. 2 backup behind Brian Westbrook. Moats may get 10-15 touches per game, more than most backups, however, because Westbrook is versatile enough to line up at wide receiver. With the Eagles short in WR depth, Westbrook could line up in the slot a few times a game with Moats in the backfield. Grab Moats in deep leagues or if you own Westbrook and have room on your roster to handcuff them.

Also, Chris Mortenson talked about Antonio Gates' (SD_TE) on The Show on ESPN.com this morning. Here's a piece:

Chris Mortensen: There is zero chance of Gates playing in the opener. The agent misled everyone with that statement....the commissioner has no power to intercede. It's a collectively bargained issue. Once the Chargers sent the letter, it was irrevocable and the agent should have made that plain to Gates that he had a Saturday deadline. Very unfortunate.

UPDATE: Lee Suggs (CLE-RB) was the favorite to win the Browns starting job, but he suffered a high ankle sprain last week and has no idea when he'll be able to return to practice. Hopefully, it will be by next week and Week 1. Check back for updates this week.

Friday's column will break down wide receivers.

Monday, August 22, 2005

Monday Morning Updates

gates
Antonio Gates (AP)

UPDATED: Tuesday, 3:30 p.m.

Some potentially big fantasy news this weekend.

San Diego suspended Antonio Gates (SD-TE) for three games (two preseason and Week 1 of the regular season) for failing to show up by Saturday. Gates, who is far and away the No. 2 fantasy player at his position, finally signed a one-year deal on Sunday night. He will likely still be suspended, but things could change at some point this week. Check back here for updates in italics.

UPDATE: Gates signed a five-year deal Tuesday, but is still going to have to sit out Game 1 against Dallas. We'll prorate his stats and update them in the cheat sheets Friday. He's still the No. 2 TE in fantasy football.

elimanning
Eli Manning (AP)

Eli Manning (NYG-QB) suffered an elbow injury during Saturday's preseason game against Carolina. Manning woke up Sunday morning with soreness and is having more tests on the elbow, so hopefully we'll know more about it in the next day or so. He did throw a touchdown pass after the injury, so maybe that's a good sign.

UPDATE: Manning has a sprained right elbow and will miss the Aug. 26 preseason game against the Jets. He did say, however, that if it was a regular season game, he would likely be able to play.

Non-Fantasy UPDATE: Holy cow, did Dallas rookie Demarcus Ware (DAL-OLB/DE) look great in Monday's game. His ability could make that entire defense much, much better.

J.P. Losman (BUF-QB) won't make any friends with the way he is throwing the ball in the preseason. The second-year QB and first-year starter led Eric Moulds (BUF-WR) right into a monster hit in Saturday's game against Green Bay. Moulds suffered bruised ribs and didn't return to the game, but he should be OK by Week 1.

Friday, August 19, 2005

Friday Extras for August 19

Everyone understands that LaDainian Tomlinson (SD-RB) is the No. 1 pick in virtually every fantasy football league. It's automatic.

But who you would take with the No. 2 overall selection may say something about the type of person you are. It basically comes down to two players: Shaun Alexander (SEA-RB) and Priest Holmes (KC-RB).

Alexander is the safe pick. The guy for people who don't want to have to worry about their best player. Alexander will almost definitely play 16 games and be among the top five or so players overall in fantasy scoring. He has played in all 16 games in each of his five NFL seasons and has rushed for at least 1,175 yards every year since becoming the featured back in 2001. He's also scored either 14 or 16 touchdowns every year since then.

Holmes, meanwhile, is for the risky owner. The no-guts-no-glory person who wants the rush of adrenaline every Sunday morning when checking if Holmes is going to play or not. One thing is for sure, if Holmes plays all 16 games, he'll score more than Alexander (and probably Tomlinson, too). But what are the odds of that? He played only eight games last year and is 32 years old -- ancient for RBs this side of Curtis Martin (NYJ-RB). In those eight games last year, Holmes scored 14 TDs. 14! In 2003, when he played 16 games, Holmes score an NFL-record 27 times.

What type of fantasy owner are you? Safe and smart or risky and aggressive? You'll find out if you draw the No. 2 pick in your draft.

DEEP SLEEPERS -- The very insane fantasy leagues require extra starters at each position and, therefore, extra players overall. These leagues usually include three starting RBs per team. In a 10-team league, that's 30 starters from the 32-team NFL. Needless to say, you better be looking at some potential sleepers in these leagues. Here are some:

  • Marshall Faulk (STL-RB) -- In a league that gives points for receptions, Faulk could even start in these deep leagues. He has lost the starting job to Steven Jackson (STL-RB) and won't get many carries, but he will still catch a bunch of passes and score an occasional TD. Also, if Jackson gets hurt, Faulk would likely be a top-20 RB as the lone threat out of the backfield.
  • Larry Johnson (KC-RB) -- I'll talk more about Johnson in the handcuffing section below, but the fact that he's backing up the injury-prone Holmes and will also be used in spots with Holmes makes Johnson a great backup in these leagues.
  • Najeh Davenport (GB-RB) -- Davenport is the new LaMont Jordan (OAK-RB). For years, Jordan was considered a future star if only he got the chance to start. He has that opportunity this season, and now you'll hear Davenport talked about the same way. If Ahman Green (GB-RB) gets hurt this year, Davenport will surely step up and dominate. The Packers may even dump Green next season in favor of Davenport.

HANDCUFFING RBs -- More than any other position, you definitely want to handcuff your star RBs. In other words, make sure you select the backup to your best two runners. If you have Deuce McAllister (NO-RB), take Aaron Stecker (NO-RB) late in your draft. If you have Rudi Johnson (CIN-RB), take Chris Perry (CIN-RB). You can't afford to have your top guy miss time and not have the backup.

This is most vital in the case of the injury-prone players. If you have Holmes, Johnson is an absolute must. You may have to take him earlier than most backups, say the 9th or 10th round, but it will be worth it when Holmes misses two weeks and Johnson goes for 130 yards in each game.

INJURY RISK -- Holmes. 'Nuff said.

UPDATED CHEATSHEETS -- Still only a little movement this week, but there was some. The biggest came at RB because I felt I had the numbers too low for Julius Jones (DAL-RB) and Kevin Jones (DET-RB). They were moved up ahead of LaMont Jordan (OAK-RB), who I like a lot, but is a little more of risk. Rex Grossman (CHI-QB) was also taken off the board after his season-ending injury.

INJURIES, ROSTER UPDATES --Grossman was the lone big casualty last year, although he wasn't going to be more than a fantasy backup. With starters playing longer in this weekend's preseason games, we may have more injury news. Check back here for updates in italics.

Also, the Chargers are fed up with Antonio Gates (SD-TE) and threatened to suspend him through the second game of the regular season if he doesn't report to camp by the weekend. Gates, the No. 2 fantasy TE is holding out for a raise and can't seem to come to an agreement. I'll keep you updated. For now, assume he'll be back this weekend.

Wednesday, August 17, 2005

T.O. being T.O.

Terrell Owens (PHI-WR) returned to camp today and everything apparently went smoothly. We'll see if the whole episode has sparked a fire under Owens or if another incident is on the horizon. I'd consider him in the third round, but nothing sooner.

Lawerence Tynes (KC-K) was in hot water with the Chiefs as it is, so who knows how the news that he was charged with felony assault Wednesday will play out. Read the whole story on NFL.com.

Friday's column will deal with running backs.

Check here back for breaking news.

Monday, August 15, 2005

Ronnie Brown Finally Reports

brown&williams
Miami Dolphins running backs Ronnie Brown (23)
and Ricky Williams (34) practice together for the first time Monday.

No. 2 overall pick Ronnie Brown (MIA-RB) finally agreed to terms with the Dolphins Monday and practiced with the team. Brown will have to play catch up quickly because Miami is counting on him to step right into the starting role, especially with Ricky Williams (MIA-RB) suspended for the first four games.

Brown may still have a strong rookie campaign despite the missed time. Edgerrin James (IND-RB) and LaDainian Tomlinson (SD-RB) each had good rookie years after long holdouts.

James led the league in rushing with 1,553 yards in 1999 to go with 17 total touchdowns. Tomlinson, meanwhile, rushed for 1,236 and 10 scores in 2001. The key for both was that they had the opportunity to start from day one. Brown will likely have that same chance.

ALSO
After Rex Grossman (CHI-QB) suffered a broken ankle in Friday's exhibition, the Bears signed Jeff Blake this weekend. Expect Chad Hutchinson and Kyle Orton to compete for the starting job.

Apparently, Hines Ward (PIT-WR) is ending his holdout, with the Steelers likely giving him a new deal. Ward is a solid No. 2 fantasy wide receiver who could post better numbers than last eyar (80 catches, 1,004 yards, four TDs) especially with Plaxico Burress (NYG-WR) gone via free agency.

TONIGHT'S GAME
It's Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia tonight on Monday Night Football (ABC, 8). The starters won't play long, but there are three things to keep an eye on:
  • Who is catching passes from Ben Roethlisberger (PIT-QB)? Is Antwaan Randle El (PIT-WR), Heath Miller (PIT-TE) or someone else? Someone other than Ward must step up in the passing game and whoever does will have some good fantasy value.
  • Who is catching passes from Donovan McNabb (PHI-QB)? We all know that T.O. won't be playing tonight and may not even play this year. Who is McNabb developing some feel for?
  • How does Ryan Moats (PHI-RB) look? The rookie could get some serious reps in the backfield behind Brian Westbrook (PHI-RB) if he's as good as advertised. Is he?

Friday, August 12, 2005

Friday Notes

grossman

Rex Grossman (AP Photo) will miss 3-4 months after breaking his ankle Friday night. See more below.

Updated at bottom, Friday, 10:45 p.m.

In today's column, I mentioned that some leagues require two starting quarterbacks in an effort to make star signal callers like Peyton Manning (IND-QB) and Daunte Culpepper (MIN-QB) more valuable.

That brings up an interesting problem: If you are in a 10-team league that requires two starting quarterbacks, everyone must select at least three in order to cover themselves for bye weeks and injuries. If 10 teams select three QBs each, that's 30 QBs from a total of 32 NFL teams selected right from the start. Now, if you want to look for some real deep sleepers in a league like that, you could have some problems.

Here's a look at the guys way down on our rankings that could surprise everyone with solid seasons:

  • Billy Volek (TEN-QB) -- Later in this entry, I'll talk more about starter Steve McNair's (TEN-QB) injury issues, which make Volek a good choice in the later rounds of the deepest leagues. In eight starts last year, Volek threw for more than 290 yards per game and a total of 20 touchdowns passing and rushing. If and when McNair goes down, Volek will be a top-12 QB. He's a good fourth option in leagues with two starting QBs.
  • Jeff Garcia (DET-QB) -- Garcia was highlighted in the column today and should definitely be drafted late in these leagues. If he takes over for Joey Harrington (DET-QB), who could easily lose his job by Week 5, Garcia will be throwing to arguably the most talented wide receiver trio in the league (Roy Williams, Charles Rogers, Mike Williams) and handing off to the ultra-talented Kevin Jones (DET-RB).
  • (Not any more, see injury update from Friday night) Rex Grossman (CHI-QB) -- Grossman is the Bears' starter, but he's going to be one of the very last starters taken in most fantasy drafts. Grossman isn't going to set any passing records, but he does have a pretty firm grasp on the starting job and the addition of Muhsin Muhammad (CHI-WR) from Carolina gives him a go-to guy he didn't have last year. If he is your fourth QB, you are in pretty good shape at the position.
  • Other QBs who could prove worthy in very deep leagues are Jay Fielder (NYJ-QB), Kelly Holcomb (BUF-QB), Gus Frerotte (MIA-QB), A.J. Feeley (MIA-QB).

INJURY PRONE -- It seems like years ago that McNair shared the NFL MVP award with Manning and was considered a top-8 fantasy signal caller.

It was actually only 2003, but McNair missed eight games last season and always seems to be battling some injury. Earlier in his career, McNair would play through the pain, but it seems that the long list of injuries has worn him down and he’ll likely miss time again this season.

He’s only considered a good backup in deep leagues that require two starting QBs.

TEAM QBs -- In big losses or wins, starting quarterbacks seem more likely than others to stay on the bench early in the game. They are also the most likely to be injured. One remedy for these issues is for your league to employ Team QBs instead of individual ones. Instead of drafting and starting "Peyton Manning" you go with "Indianapolis QBs" at the position. This option also keeps you from overcrowding your lineup with extra QBs and allows you to look for more backups at other positions.

There are some changes in value when you use this system. For instance, I've talked a lot about McNair and Volek of Tennessee today and because they will likely both see between seven and nine games this year, neither is worth a very high draft pick. But if your league uses Team QBs, Tennessee is much more valuable. Keep this in mind when deciding how to set up your league.

CHEAT SHEETS UPDATED -- There was some minor movement in this week's cheat sheets. Eli Manning (NYG-QB) has been getting very solid reviews in camp and I bumped his projections up a bit. He moves from the No. 22 QB to No. 20, jumping over Drew Brees (SD-QB) and Kurt Warner (ARZ-QB). ... With J.P. Losman (BUF-QB) showing signs of usefulness in camp, Willis McGahee's (BUF-RB) value goes up a bit. He jumped up to No. 5 among RBs and bumps Edgerrin James (IND-RB) and Brian Westbrook (PHI-RB) down one spot each. ... Ronnie Brown's (MIA-RB) continued holdout is hurting his value and he dropped down eight spots from No. 20 to No. 28 among RBs. Kevan Barlow (SF-RB), meanwhile, appears to be in the form many were expecting last year and moves up one spot to No. 20. ... Duce Staley (PIT-RB) will miss at least one month and Week 1 with a knee injury. He drops from No. 32 to No. 33 with the missed week of action. ... Brandon Stokley (IND-WR) will miss at least Week 1 with a shoulder injury, knocking his projections down from No. 31 among WRs to No. 37. ... Todd Pinkston (PHI-WR) is out for the year and has been removed from the cheat sheets, where he was ranked No. 54 among WRs last week. Everyone below him moved up one spot and Reche Caldwell (SD-WR) joined the list at No. 60.

OTHER INJURIES -- The injury bug has been absent so far, but that will likely change with this weekend's presason games. It's a virtual guarantee that some starter will suffer a serious injury and we'll hear the pundants screaming about needing only two preseason games. Anyway, if you have a fantasy draft this weekend, keep an ear out and check on injuries as much as possible before the draft.

Update: Friday, 10:45 p.m.: Rex Grossman (CHI-QB) broke his ankle in tonight's presaeason game against St. Louis and will miss the next 3-4 months. Right now, Chad Hutchinson is the leader to take over, while Kyle Orton is also on the roster. Chicago may also look to trade for a veteran.

Thursday, August 11, 2005

On The Radio

I'll be on "The Press Box" with Bob Behler and Scott Harris on WNNZ-AM 640 in Springfield Friday at 4:06 p.m. We'll talk about sleepers, first round strategies and much more. Check it out.

Also, tomorrow's column will focus on quarterbacks: what strategy to use based on the type of league you are in, choices for overrated and underrated players and much more. It'll be available in the Daily Hampshire Gazette and on the fantasy football page.

OTHER NEWS
No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith (SF-QB) will start the 49ers preseason opener Saturday against the Oakland Raiders. With San Fran missing four of its starting five offensive linemen, is this really the way for its franchise guy to get his first game action? Could be scary.

Also in Niner camp, Smith will likely be without the team's leading receiver from last year, Eric Johnson (SF-TE), who sat out of practice with a foot injury and is expected to miss Saturday's contest. The injury doesn't sound serious at this time, however.

Check back for updates throughout the day. They'll be written in italics on this post.

Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Minor Changes and Big T.O. News

A few notes before we get to some NFL news:

We're still touching things up on this page to make it as easy to read and follow as possible. The blog will feature the two most recent updates and there is a link to archives below the second posting. Also, I'll be using italics from time to time to update minor things within a post that don't require an entire new post. Also, feel free to use the Comments section at the bottom of each post to sound off or ask questions.

T.O. LEAVES TRAINING CAMP!
TOleaves
There are reports that Terrell Owens (above, AP) (PHI-WR) left camp today after exchanging words with coach Andy Reid. Read ESPN's story HERE. Who knows where this is going. Owens could return to camp tomorrow and everything could be A-OK or this could turn into something major. I'll keep an eye on this through the week with updates posted here in italics. If your draft is this weekend and Owens is still out of camp, avoid him.

Update, Wednesday, 6:53 p.m.: Owens' reps are saying that Reid told Owens to leave and come back next Wednesday. We'll see what Reid says.

IN OTHER NEWS
Duce Staley (PIT-RB) had knee surgery Monday and is expected to miss the next month or so. Hopefully, he'll be back and ready to go in Week 2 of the regular season.

Rumor is that No. 3 overall pick Braylon Edwards (CLE-WR) is close to signing with the Browns and finally getting into camp. Edwards needs to show up soon and play some serious catch-up in order to make an impact right from the start of the regular season.

Update, Wednesday, 8:13 p.m.: Maybe not so close, as Edwards and his agent bolted from a meeting with the Browns set to essentially finalize a deal. What the heck is going on today?

Update, Thrusday, 11:04 a.m.: After a very strange day of negotiations, Edwards signed late last night. He was expected to practice today with the team.

Monday, August 08, 2005

First Live Draft

I took part in the first of three drafts for leagues I'll be in this year. It's a 10-team keeper league I've been in with friends for a few years now.

Just a few things worth noting. Hopefully, they'll assist you on your draft day:

*Travis Henry's move to Tennessee dropped Chris Brown's stock down below virtually every other starting running back. In fact, Henry was chosen a round or so before Brown.

*Two team defenses everyone seemed high on were the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Former Patriot defensive back Ty Law signed with the Jets during the draft and, from the reaction from the fantasy owners, made the Jets a top-5 defense.

*Muhsin Muhammad (CHI-WR) and Drew Brees (SD-QB) were taken far too early in my opinion. Muhammad was a leading scorer last year with a fantastic second half with the Carolina Panthers, but his move to Chicago hurts his value, while Brees had three fantastic games pad his overall stats last season. Assuming someone in your league will look at last year's stats and see fourth or fifth round pick, be happy they'll be someone else's to deal with.

RETIREMENT/HOLDOUT UPDATES

Freddie Jones (CAR-TE) retired this weekend. Carolina doesn't throw to its tight ends much, but Kris Mangum is now the likely No. 1 on the Panthers' depth chart.

Brian Westbrook (PHI-RB) finally ended his holdout and practiced with the Eagles Monday. Westbrook is a strong late first or early second round pick.

Rookie Mark Clayton (BAL-WR) ended his holdout by signing a five-year deal with the Ravens. With a few exceptions, receivers tend to struggle in their first years and I especially suggest staying away from the ones that report to camp late.

With Clayton (the No. 22 overall pick) signing, there are eight first round picks left unsigned. Three are offensive skill position players eligible for fantasy football -- No. 2 Ronnie Brown (MIA-RB), No. 3 Braylon Edwards (CLE-WR), No. 4 Cedric Benson (CHI-RB).

SUGGESTED READING

I never miss Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback.

FINALLY

We'll get our first look at Ricky Williams (MIA-RB) on tonight's Hall of Fame Game (ABC, 8)since his return from a year away from the game. Williams, the NFL's leading rusher in 2002 shocked the Dolphins and football fans everywhere last year when he retired just before training camp opened last season. Williams returned with much fanfare and will have to compete with Brown (if he ever signs) for touches in the backfield.

Will Ricky go back to being the star runner of old? We'll start to find out tonight.

Friday, August 05, 2005

Notes on the Cheat Sheets

I just wanted to clarify a few things regarding the projections and rankings available at the top of the page.

The overall numbers are based purely on the player value rankings (how a player compares to the fantasy league's lowest assumed starter). The basic system I used for determining the points and rankings are based on many typical public leagues you can find online. Having only one starter at QB to go with two at RB and three at WR dramatically hurts the values of the top QBs.

Because you are only comparing the No. 1 QB (Peyton Manning) against the No. 10 QB (Matt Hasselbeck), Manning's value is much lower than when you are comparing the No. 1 WR (Randy Moss) to the No. 30 WR (Derrick Mason). This is the reality in fantasy football.

I would not, however, base your drafting strategy solely on the PVR list, at least not in the first few rounds. You should take two RBs in the first three rounds, regardless of how many WRs are at the top of the list.

My top 12 for this type of league would be: 1. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD-RB), 2. Shaun Alexander (SEA-RB), 3. Priest Holmes (KC-RB), 4. Tiki Barber (NYG-RB), 5. Edgerrin James (IND-RB), 6. Willis McGahee (BUF-RB), 7. Deuce McAllister (NO-RB), 8. Corey Dillon (NE-RB), 9. Randy Moss (OAK-WR), 10. Brian Westbrook (PHI-RB), 11. Terrell Owens (PHI-WR), 12. Domanick Davis (HOU-RB)

I move Alexander ahead of Holmes because of Priest's injury concerns. Westbrook is also knocked down because of concerns regarding his holdout. I wouldn't consider a quarterback until at least the fifth or sixth round.

Also, many fantasy leagues are now compensating for the QB situation by starting two per team instead of one. If your league does this, it makes the No. 20 QB (Drew Brees) the comparison player. Since Brees is a -60 in the 10-team league, you add 60 PVR points to each player. That change would move Manning from a +77 to a +137 and Daunte Culpepper (MIN-QB) from a +71 to a +131. They would go from numbers 19 and 21, respectively, on the overall top 50 to numbers three and five.

Consider this change and make sure to check your league's starting lineup requirements before finalizing your cheat sheets. Change the PVR math for QBs if your league starts two of them.

Injury Notes: Todd Pinkston (PHI-WR) will miss the season with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. He is ranked No. 54 on this week's cheat sheets. Be sure to cross him off before the draft.

A hamstring injury will sideline Jerry Porter (Oak-WR) for two weeks. Porter is ranked No. 33 on the cheat sheet. I wouldn't change his ranking or projections based on this injury. If he suffers a setback, we'll have to reconsider. Otherwise, some fantasy owners may be a little apprehensive about drafting him now, so you may be able to get him at a lower spot than before.

Saturday's American Bowl

peyton
The NFL opens its preseason with Saturday's contest between the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts (ESPN, 6 p.m.). While teams never play their starters for more than a series or two - and sometimes not at all - there are still some things to look for as a fantasy owner.

In the regular season, this would be billed as a great head-to-head battle between very different quarterbacks - Indy's pocket passer Peyton Manning (above, AP) vs. human pinball machine Michael Vick (ATL-QB). But they'll play a total of 10-12 snaps. Instead, it's the wide receiver situation that seems the most interesting.

Two things to look for:

*Where is Michael Jenkins (ATL-WR) slotted on the depth chart?
Nothing is set in stone yet, but if Jenkins is running with the first team, he could be considered a deep sleeper among fantasy receivers. Jenkins saw very little time last year as a rookie (7 catches, 119 yards, 0 TDs) but has the tools to be a talented receiver. He'll also get every chance to start alongside No. 1 Peerless Price and ahead of No. 2 Dez White and No. 3 Brian Finneran on the depth chart. Price hasn't exactly lit it up since joining the Falcons in 2003. If things break perfectly, Jenkins, who is 6-foot-4 with good hands and good-enough speed could be a star by Week 8.

*Who is playing in injured Brandon Stokley's (IND-WR) place?
Stokley was terrific as the Colts' third receiver last season (68 catches, 1,077 yards, 10 TDs). A dislocated shoulder this week has him sidelined through the preseason, but he should return to the lineup either for Week 1 or Week 2. Regardless, this will give you a chance to see who the next guy on the depth chart is. That's important because if Stokley, Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne go down at some point this season, their replacement will immediately become a useful fantasy receiver. Aaron Moorehead and Troy Walters are the two most likely candidates. They aren't worth drafting, but keep one in mind if they impress in Stokley's absence.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Injury Updates

TOwens

Philadelphia wide receiver Terrell Owens (Pictured above, via AP) suffered a minor groin injury in practice Thursday. He's expected to be fine. Owens, who had 77 catches for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, is the No. 2 wide receiver on the draft board.

Brandon Stokley (IND-WR) suffered a dislocated shoulder in practice Thursday in Tokyo, where the Colts are preparing for Saturday's American Bowl preseason game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Stokley, who finished last season with 68 catches, 1,077 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as Indy's third wide receiver, is expected to miss four weeks and could be out for the Colts' regular-season opener at Baltimore on Sept. 11. He is currently ranked No. 31 among wide receivers on my draft cheatsheet.

Anquan Boldin (ARZ-WR) broke his nose during practice Thursday. The injury shouldn't cause Boldin, who played in just 10 games last year because of a knee injury, to miss any time or fall on our draft board. Boldin is the No. 12 receiver on the draft board.

Jamal Lewis (BAL-RB) isn't injured, but his return to the team has been delayed over his probation on a drug conspiracy charge. It was originally believed that Lewis would show up at camp Thursday, but it looks more likely that he'll be back in pads on Monday, August 8. Lewis is currently the 14th running back on the cheatsheet.

Wednesday, August 03, 2005

Getting Started

Summer is winding down and it's time to start thinking about fantasy football.

There are some changes to our coverage this year that should help us provide you with better information more easily.

First, the weekly column has moved to Fridays, when you can check out the lastest news on the upcoming weekend's games and read some predictions and suggestions before setting your lineup.

Here's the preseason column schedule:
August 5: Overall View
August 12: Quarterbacks
August 19: Running Backs
August 26: Wide Receivers
Sept. 2: Tight Ends/Kickers/Team Defenses

The season begins on Thursday, Sept. 8 when the New England Patriots host the Oakland Raiders. The rest of the league plays that weekend culminating in Monday Night's Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons contest.

Also, with draft dates fast approaching, we've put together cheatsheets that you can find on this page to print out and use at your draft. Every offensive position is broken down with statistical projections, likely fantasy points scored and player values rankings.

Finally, we've started this weblog, where you can check back to see updates on injuries and news and notes that either didn't make it into the weekly column or were too important to hold off on. Your comments are also welcome and I'll do my best to answer any questions you may have.