UMASS BLOG: Updated Path to Postseason for Minutemen
I've decided to move this from the Week Guide to its own thing this year. I'll update after every UMass game.
Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach postseason.
By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass team with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.
WINS: Harvard, Providence
LOSSES:NC State, Tennessee
BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 27-2
WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 2-27
Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.
Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Nov. 28 at Siena, 7 p.m. (W)
Dec. 1 vs. Miami (Fla.), 2 p.m. (?)
Dec. 4 at Northeastern, 7 p.m. (?)
Dec. 15 vs. Elon, noon (W)
Dec. 19 vs. Ohio, 7:30 p.m. (? dropped drastically now at 40 percent)
Dec. 22 vs. East Carolina, 2 p.m. (W)
Dec. 29 at Northern Illinois, 4 p.m. (W)
Jan. 2 at Miami (Ohio), 7 p.m. (W)
Jan. 5 vs. Eastern Michigan, 2 p.m. (W)
Jan. 10 at Saint Louis, 9 p.m. (L)
Jan. 13 at Fordham, 1 p.m. (W)
Jan. 17 vs. Duquesne, 7 p.m. (W)
Jan. 19 vs. George Washington, (W)
Jan. 27 vs. Richmond, TBA (?)
Jan. 30 at La Salle, 7 p.m. (L)
Feb. 2 at Charlotte, 2 p.m. (L)
Feb. 6 vs. Rhode Island, 7 p.m. (W, 84 percent most likely win)
Feb. 9 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 2 p.m. (L)
Feb. 14 at VCU, 9 p.m. (L 12 percent least likely win)
Feb. 16 vs. Temple, 6 p.m. (?)
Feb. 20 at St. Bonaventure, 7 p.m. (L)
Feb. 23 vs. Dayton, 1 p.m. (?)
March 2 at Xavier, 2 p.m. (L)
March 7 vs. Butler, 7 p.m. (W)
March 9 at Rhode Island, 2 p.m. (?)
Prognosis: Currently 2-2 - 11 projected W's - 7 Projected L's - 7 projected ?s -
* If the Minutemen won all 11 projected W's and went 2-5 in the projected ?s, they'd probably make one of the lesser postseason tournaments.
* To make the NCAA Tournament, they'll need to be better than 7-7 in the L's and ?s.