PATH TO POSTSEASON

Every week on the blog this football season, I'll project each UMass
game based on expectations and how it affects the Minutemen's chances
of reaching the postseason.

* A projected win (W) means - based on rankings, venue etc. The Minutemen should be considered the favorite.

* A projected loss (L) means the Minutemen would be considered the
underdog in the game, that a UMass win would be considered an upset.

* A (?) means the game is too close to call right now.

I'll adjust the projections based on UMass' performance and the performance of the opponent as the season progresses.

IN THE BOOKS - 3-1

Sept. 5 at Kansas State  LOSS 

Sept. 12 vs. Albany WIN

Sept. 19 vs. Rhode Island WIN 

Sept. 26 vs. Stony Brook WIN

Date - Opponent - (Expected result on paper)

Oct. 10 at Delaware (?) - The Blue Hens fell to William & Mary this week. Can Delaware beat a good team? Is UMass a good team?

Oct. 17 vs. New Hampshire (?) - New Hampshire has back-to-back easy wins (Dartmouth, Towson) before playing Villanova on Oct. 10

Oct. 24 at Richmond (L) -VMI was tougher than expected for Richmond, but the Spiders are still No. 1 

Oct. 31 at Maine (W) -Maine hung with Syracuse for a while, but the Black Bears still haven't shown an ability to win against even decent teams.

Nov. 7 vs. Northeastern (W) - The Huskies are still terrible.

Nov. 14 vs. James Madison (L) -  The Dukes have shown well so far.

Nov. 21 at Hofstra (W) - Any preseason optimism surrounding the Pride looks a little unfounded now.

Prognosis: UMass is 3-1 with six projected wins now, three
projected losses, and two toss-ups. The Minutemen have proven capable
of beating bad teams and Maine and Hofstra look fairly lousy now. UMass
still has to prove itself as a good road team, but Maine and Hofstra
have yet to prove themselves anywhere.

So if the Minutemen can hold serve on projected wins they'd likely
need to get at least two victories from the uncertain group or the
projected losses to get to 8-3 which would assure them a bid.

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