Girls Hoop Quarterfinal previews
Here's a game-by-game look at all 12 western Mass. quarterfinal matchups set for Thursday at 7 p.m. I went 10-1 with my picks during the first round (good job by Belchertown to knock off Athol) and will begin the quest to fall back toward .500 here.
There are a ton of good games in the mix. If you told me before the year at Amherst-Minnechaug was playing in the tourney, I would have assumed it was at least the semifinals, same with Mahar-Monument Mountain. In Division 3, I love the Sabis-New Leadership and Smith-Ware games. Plus, I think we learn a lot about defending state champion Northampton (win or lose) in Thursday's game against Holyoke.
QUARTERFINALS
Division 1
No. 9 Amherst Regional (11-10) at No. 1 Minnechaug (17-2)
Head to head: Minnechaug won 51-32 at home on Dec. 30
How they got here: Amherst beat West Springfield 51-43 in the quarterfinals; Minnechaug had a bye
Players to watch: Amherst: guards Alyssa Leonard and Jenna Klaes, center Mariah Lesure; Minnechaug: center Bridget Crowley, forward, Briana Kelly, guard Bre Dufault
Winner gets: winner of Central-Ludlow
Notes: Amherst third-year coach Christal Murphy returns to her alma mater for the second time hoping to get a win and earn her first trip to the semifinals as Hurricanes coach. It certainly won't be easy, as the Falcons have had plenty of rest and will be well prepared to take on the Hurricanes. The biggest question is whether Amherst can play at a quick enough offensive tempo to keep Minnechaug from setting up its zone. Klaes, Leonard and company love to run and that could help a lot here. Otherwise, it will take a lot of ball-control and some hot-shooting from behind the arc for Amherst to pull off the upset. Minnechaug, meanwhile, has to rebound against an Amherst team that has cleaned the glass extremely well since getting everyone back from injury. This one could definitely be close and is a very tough matchup for the No. 1 seed in the quarterfinals. Still, Chaug coach Dave Yelle isn't going to let his team overlook the Hurricanes simply because of their overall record.
Pick: Minnechaug
No. 5 Central (14-6) at No. 4 Ludlow (15-5)
Head to head: Central won 69-52 at home on Feb. 12
How they got here: Both teams had byes
Players to watch: Central: guards Brisje Malone and A'Lece Mark and Center Aleisha Hawley; Ludlow: guards Jenna Williamson and Elish Homich
Winner gets: winner of Amherst-Minnechaug
Notes: The seeds were flipped after the meeting to give the home game to Ludlow, which was clearly the right move via the way the Walker worked out. I'm just not convinced that Ludlow is athletic enough to pull this one off and if the Golden Eagles are focused they can play with anyone. For example, they looked completely disheveled at the Hoophall and lost to Minnechaug, but came back and beat the Falcons later in the season. The key questions for the Lions, meanwhile, is whether they can rebound with Central and whether they can get either Williamson or Homich (the program's first-ever 1,000-point scorer) going early.
Pick: Central
No. 7 Agawam (13-8) at No. 2 East Longmeadow (18-2)
Head to head: Split the season with the road teams winning each. Agawam won by two (12/30), EL by 16 (1/12)
How they got here: Agawam beat Chicopee Comp 50-42 in quarterfinals; EL had a bye
Players to watch: Agawam: center Mackenzie Doyle; East Longmeadow: forward/center Krista Ferrentino
Winner gets: winner of Holyoke-Northampton
Notes: Doyle was the hero against Comp, but this is a much bigger fish (or Spartan, in this case) to fry. The inside matchup of Doyle and Ferrentino is one not to be missed, but the game will likely be decided by the supporting cast, which favors EL.
Pick: East Longmeadow
No. 6 Holyoke (14-6) at No. 3 Northampton (15-5)
Head to head: Northampton swept series, winning by 37 at home (1/26) and by 8 in Holyoke (2/12)
How they got here: Both teams had byes
Players to watch: Holyoke: center Natasha Colon-Ortiz, guard Monique Heard; Northampton: forwards Alannah Driscoll-Sbar and Cassy Sicard, guard Jenny Bell
Winner gets: winner of Agawam-East Longmeadow
Notes: I think we'll know by the third quarter if Northampton has a shot to repeat. If the Blue Devils are flopping on the floor, complaining to the refs and not pushing the ball at every opportunity, their season will probably be over at AIC at best (if not here). If they are playing overwhelming defense, beating Holyoke down the floor, rebounding and letting a bad call or two slide off their backs, they could be headed back to the DCU Center. I'm betting that the senior class will kick it up a notch now that they are in a one-and-done situation.
Pick: Northampton
Division 2
No. 8 Drury (15-6) at No. 1 Palmer (20-0)
Head to head: Did not play this season
How they got here: Drury beat Hoosac Valley, 34-28; Palmer had a bye
Players to watch: Drury: senior guard Taylor DeSanty; Palmer: junior guard/forward Alyssa Orszulak, junior forward Katrina Caulfield
Winner gets: winner of Mahar-Monument
Notes: Interesting matchup in that DeSanty is the kind of player that could cause an upset, but this is a very tall task indeed. DeSanty, the program's all-time leading scorer, averages 22 points per game and is capable of much more if she gets going. But the Panthers are so good and so poised that it's hard to see them losing this early. You can be sure that Orszulak, Caulfield and company will be entirely composed here and the team's depth will likely be too much for the well-coached Blue Devils.
Pick: Palmer
No. 10 Belchertown (13-8) at No. 2 Commerce (18-2)
Head to head: Did not play this season
How they got here: Belchertown beat Athol 58-56; Commerce had a bye
Players to watch: Belchertown: senior guard Katelyn Cavanaugh, senior center Kierstin Del Valle, junior forward Briana Del Valle; Commerce: senior guard Tiaunna Nieves, senior forward Angie Couyoute
Winner gets: winner of Wahconah-Mohawk
Notes: Great job by the Orioles to hand me my one quarterfinal loss, knocking off a very hot Athol team on the road. In that game, they neutralized any issues around the perimeter and took advantage of their size inside. Commerce is more well-balanced than Athol and Nieves may be the most underrated player in Division 2. She could be a real handful here for Belchertown. Hate to be a non-believer in the local team here. This pick is more about Commerce than Belchertown.
Pick: Commerce
No. 6 Wahconah (15-6) at No. 3 Mohawk (19-2)
Head to head: Did not play this season
How they got here: Wahconah beat Mount Greylock 58-36; Mohawk beat Gateway 55-8
Players to watch: Wahconah: Darcey Sullivan and Sara Hamilton; Mohawk: senior guards Johanna Miner and Kelsey Schmidt, senior forward April Sheldon and senior center Madeline Hoeppner
Winner gets: winner of Belchertown-Commerce
Notes: It's hard to look at Mohawk's game-by-game result and not be concerned here. Losing two of their last three in games that could have clinched the Franklin North outright doesn't make me confident in their game of late and beating up on Gateway just isn't enough to cure that feeling. Wahconah, meanwhile, did just the opposite, getting healthy and then winning five straight, including a big-time win over Monument at home to end the regular season. The Warriors are deep enough to deal with Mohawk's greatest strength -- it's own depth -- and I just have a feeling that the Berkshire team is going to score the upset here.
Pick: Wahconah
No. 5 Mahar (18-3) at No. 4 Monument Mountain (17-4)
Head to head: Did not play this season
How they got here: Mahar beat Frontier 57-45; Monument beat Hampshire 55-36
Players to watch: Mahar: senior guard Mary Kovacevic and senior forward Ginny Averill; Monument: guards Mare McCormick and Keelyn Harris
Winner gets: winner of Drury-Palmer
Notes: I actually think this is going to be the game of the day in Division 2, as Mahar matches up well here with a standout point guard (Kovacevic) and a strong inside presence (Averill) -- both are 1,000-point scorers. Monument will undoubtedly bring on the defense here and the game will likely come down to whether Kovacevic and company can take care of the ball. Otherwise, the Spartans will start the layup line and we'll be seeing Tom Kinne back at the Cage once again. The only thing really holding me back here is Mahar's long, long trip West, but I'm going to go with Franklin County here after going with the Berkshire upset above.
Pick: Mahar
Division 3
No. 9 Lenox (7-14) at No. 1 Lee (15-5)
Head to head: Lee beat Lenox twice by 28 points each time
How they got here: Lenox beat Putnam 46-43; Lee had a bye
Players to watch: Lenox: Natalie Allen, Emma Poore; Lee: Katie Eckert, Megan Gangell, Rebecca Webb, Tara Dooley
Winner gets: winner of New Leadership-Sabis
Notes: Two new coaches, same old rivalry. The Wildcats are almost surely headed back where they belong -- back to the Cage -- under first-year head coach (and long-time assistant) Gary Wellington. Nicole Patella's crew, meanwhile, got a tough draw here. I would have liked to see what they could have done against a McCann, Smith or New Leadership (lost by eight in Springfield the first time).
Pick: Lee
No. 5 New Leadership (14-6) at No. 4 Sabis (14-6)
Head to head: Split the season with home team winning each game.
How they got here: Both teams had byes
Players to watch: New Leadership: senior guard Bilqis Abdul-Qaadir; Sabis: sophomore guard Alexis Chappell, junior guard/forward Jaimee Collins
Winner gets: winner of Lenox-Lee
Notes: The Wildcats' last loss was Jan. 26 to Commerce, the night Abdul-Qaadir broke Rebecca Lobo's state scoring record. Since then, they've won seven straight including wins over Monson and Sabis. This should be a great game, as Sabis has a bit more depth, but can they possibly slow Bilqis down enough after she dropped 43 and 51 against them in the past two matchups this season? I think we'd all like to see Lee vs. Bilqis at the Cage.
Pick: New Leadership
No. 6 Smith Academy (14-7) at No. 3 Ware (14-4)
Head to head: Did not play this year
How they got here: Smith beat Pathfinder 57-13; Ware had a bye
Players to watch: Smith: Junior forward Abeni Davies, sophomore guard Allison Slysz, freshman forward Alyssa Klepacki; Ware: junior guard/forward Justine King and senior guard Danielle Lavalley.
Winner gets: winner of McCann-Monson
Notes: It's either this or NLCS/Sabis as the game of the day in D-3. The big question here is whether Smith can slow down Ware's talented backcourt (King averages 19.2 points per game) enough to make it's advantage inside felt. I've had coaches tell me King (who is one of the top players I haven't gotten to see this year) is one of the five best players in western Mass. Can the Falcons' defense hold her at or below her average while also keeping Lavalley from going off? If so, Davies and Klepacki will likely make the difference underneath.
Pick: Smith Academy
No. 7 McCann Tech (12-9) at No. 2 Monson (16-4)
Head to head: Monson swept the two-game series
How they got here: McCann beat Franklin Tech 50-26; Monson had a bye
Players to watch: McCann: junior guard Nhi Nguyen, sophomore guard Katelyn Lewis; Monson: senior guard Martine Turgeon, junior forward Meghan Boyle
Winner gets: winner of Smith-Ware
Notes: Nhi Nguyen missed the second matchup (a 65-32 Monson win in Monson) to tend to her family after her father's passing and the team couldn't get the game rescheduled. I think the Mustangs' advantage inside with Boyle could be too much here.
Pick: Monson









