Daily Hampshire Gazette - Established 1786
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Path to Postseason After Charleston

Welcome to another year of Path to Postseason:

Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPIforecast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach postseason.

By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass team with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 31 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game. So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

Currently: 6-0
WINS: BC, LSU, Youngstown State, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson
LOSSES:
RPI: 1
Sagarin Projected RPI: 12

BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 30-0
WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 6-24
Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.


Dec. 3 at Eastern Michigan - W
Dec. 7 vs. BYU - ? - Was previously an L (38 percent) now close to a W at 55
Dec. 14 vs. Northern Illinois - W - Most likely win according to predictor at 99 percent
Dec. 18 at Ohio - W
Dec. 21 at FSU - ?
Dec. 28 vs. Providence - W
Jan. 4 vs. Miami (Ohio) - W
Jan. 8 vs. Saint Joseph's - W
Jan. 11 vs. St. Bonaventure - W
Jan. 15 at George Mason - W - Previously a ?
Jan. 18 at Elon - W - Previously a ?
Jan. 22 at Richmond - W - previously a ?
Jan. 26 vs. Fordham - W
Jan. 29 at St. Bonaventure - W - Previously a ?
Feb. 1 at Saint Joseph's - ?
Feb. 5 vs. La Salle - W - Previously a ?
Feb. 9 at Rhode Island - W - Previously a ?
Feb.12 vs. GMU - W
Feb. 15 at GW - ?
Feb. 21 vs. VCU -W - Previously a ?
Feb. 26 vs. URI - W
March 1 at Dayton - W Previously a ?
March 5 at Duquesne - W
March 9 vs. SLU - W Previously a ?


Prognosis:

Currently 6-0
20 projected W's
0 Projected L's
3 projected ?s

UMass' Charleston title moved nine games from ? to Wins. Obviously the Sagarin predictor not only likes UMass' NCAA Tournament chances, but the Minutemen's potential seed in the field

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