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UMass basketball's path to postseason: Projected numbers going the wrong way

I've decided to move this from the Week Guide to its own thing this year. I'll update after every UMass game.

Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach postseason.

By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass team with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

: 3-2
WINS: Harvard, Providence, Siena
LOSSES:NC State, Tennessee

Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.

Dec. 1 vs. Miami (Fla.), 2 p.m. (?)
Dec. 4 at Northeastern, 7 p.m. (?)
Dec. 15 vs. Elon, noon (W)
Dec. 19 vs. Ohio, 7:30 p.m. (L)
Dec. 22 vs. East Carolina, 2 p.m. (W)
Dec. 29 at Northern Illinois, 4 p.m. (W - 82 percent, most likely win)
Jan. 2 at Miami (Ohio), 7 p.m. (W)
Jan. 5 vs. Eastern Michigan, 2 p.m. (W)
Jan. 10 at Saint Louis, 9 p.m. (L)
Jan. 13 at Fordham, 1 p.m. (W)
Jan. 17 vs. Duquesne, 7 p.m. (W)
Jan. 19 vs. George Washington, (W)
Jan. 27 vs. Richmond, TBA (?)
Jan. 30 at La Salle, 7 p.m. (L)
Feb. 2 at Charlotte, 2 p.m. (L)
Feb. 6 vs. Rhode Island, 7 p.m. (W)
Feb. 9 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 2 p.m. (L)
Feb. 14 at VCU, 9 p.m. (L 11 percent, least likely win)
Feb. 16 vs. Temple, 6 p.m. (L)
Feb. 20 at St. Bonaventure, 7 p.m. (L)
Feb. 23 vs. Dayton, 1 p.m. (?)
March 2 at Xavier, 2 p.m. (L)
March 7 vs. Butler, 7 p.m. (?)
March 9 at Rhode Island, 2 p.m. (?)

Prognosis: The projections are going in the wrong directions for UMass.

Currently 3-2
8 projected W's
9 Projected L's
6 projected ?s

* UMass needs 12 wins to qualify for postseason, which is all eight projected wins plus two others.

* To get to 20 wins and the potential to be thinking NIT or NCAA that's all 8 wins, all 6 ?s and at least three of the L's

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