UMass Men's Basketball Path to Postseason
I've decided to move this from the Week Guide to its own thing this year. I'll update after every UMass game.
Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPI forcast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach postseason.
By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass team with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.
UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.
BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 29-0
WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 0-29
Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.
Nov. 13 vs. Harvard, 10 a.m. (W)
Puerto Rico Tip-Off
Nov. 15 vs. Providence Bayamon, Puerto Rico 7:30 p.m. (W)
Nov. 16 NC State or Penn State 5/7:30 p.m. (? without an actual opponent yet there's no predict)
Nov. 18 TBA Bayamon, Puerto Rico TBA (?)
Nov. 28 at Siena, 7 p.m. (W)
Dec. 1 vs. Miami (Fla.), 2 p.m. (?)
Dec. 4 at Northeastern, 7 p.m. (? 59 percent win so it's close)
Dec. 15 vs. Elon, noon (W 85 percent most likely win)
Dec. 19 vs. Ohio, 7:30 p.m. (W I would have guessed this would hae been a ?)
Dec. 22 vs. East Carolina, 2 p.m. (W)
Dec. 29 at Northern Illinois, 4 p.m. (W)
Jan. 2 at Miami (Ohio), 7 p.m. (W)
Jan. 5 vs. Eastern Michigan, 2 p.m. (W)
Jan. 10 at Saint Louis, 9 p.m. (L 27 percent least likely win)
Jan. 13 at Fordham, 1 p.m. (W)
Jan. 17 vs. Duquesne, 7 p.m. (W)
Jan. 19 vs. George Washington, (W)
Jan. 27 vs. Richmond, TBA (W)
Jan. 30 at La Salle, 7 p.m. (?)
Feb. 2 at Charlotte, 2 p.m. (?)
Feb. 6 vs. Rhode Island, 7 p.m. (W)
Feb. 9 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 2 p.m. (?)
Feb. 14 at VCU, 9 p.m. (L)
Feb. 16 vs. Temple, 6 p.m. (?)
Feb. 20 at St. Bonaventure, 7 p.m. (?)
Feb. 23 vs. Dayton, 1 p.m. (W)
March 2 at Xavier, 2 p.m. (L)
March 7 vs. Butler, 7 p.m. (?)
March 9 at Rhode Island, 2 p.m. (W)
Prognosis: 16 projected W's - 3 Projected L's - 10 projected ?s -
* If UMass loses all 10 projected ?'s as well as the three L's, I think they're still in some postseason tournament.
* If the Minutemen lost all three projected L's and went 5-5 in the ?'s they'd be 21-8, which would all but assure them of an NIT bid and probably have them on the NCAA Tournament bubble.