LEADING OFF

Wednesday marks UMass' last chance for a signature nonconference win.

PATH TO POSTSEASON

On the blog this season, I'll project each UMass
game based on expectations and how it affects the Minutemen's chances
of reaching the postseason.

* A projected win (W) means based on rankings, venue etc. The Minutemen should be considered the favorite.

* A projected loss (L) means the Minutemen would be considered the
underdog in the game, that a UMass win would be considered an upset.

* A (?) means the game is too close to call right now.

These aren't my predictions as such, simply how the games would be looked at right now.

I'll adjust the projections based on UMass' performance and the performance of the opponent as the season progresses.

By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.

UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

Currently: 7-3
WINS: Rider, Sacred Heart, New Mexico State, TCU, AIC, Holy Cross, Quinnipiac
LOSSES: Boston College, Maine, Seton Hall

Date - Opponent - (Expected result on paper)

Dec. 22 vs. Central Florida, 7 (L) - The Knights might be without Marcus Jordan, but they're still undefeated and UMass has to pull out of their recent slump.

Dec. 31 vs. Boston University, 2 (W) - Hard to make any game a solid W after Maine, but for not I'm keeping this here.
Jan. 3 at Central Connecticut, 7 (W) -Same as BU

Jan. 9 vs. Dayton, 2 (L) - The Flyers scored just 34 points against Cincinnati, which lessens my opinion of the Dayton a little, but UMass has to do more to prove it can beat an A-10 heavyweight.

Jan. 12 at Xavier, 7 (L) - Nobody wins at Xavier

Jan. 15 vs. La Salle at Mass Mutual Center, 1 (?) - La Salle doesn't impress me, but UMass hasn't played well against the Explorers.

Jan. 19 at Charlotte, 7:30 (?) - Charlotteupset a faltering Tennessee team, but UMass has to regain some consistency before I mover a conference road game into the W column.

Jan. 22 vs. Richmond, noon (L) - Will this be the Spider team that beat Purdue or the one that lost to Iona? I'm guessing Iona was the abberation

Jan. 26 at St. Bonaventure, 7 (?)- If UMass wins Wednesday, I'll move this to the (W), but Olean is a tough place to play.

Jan. 30 vs. Rhode Island, 4 (?) - Not sure what to make of the Rams yet.

Feb. 2 at Saint Louis, 8 (?) - Not sure exactly who'll be on the roster for Billikens at that point.

Feb. 5 at Saint Joseph’s, 7 (W) - The Hawks haven't shown me much.

Feb. 13 vs. Geroge Washington, 4 (W) - In Amherst this should be winnable.

Feb. 16 vs. Duquesne, 7 (?) - I think the Dukes have potential to be pretty good.
Feb. 19 at Rhode Island, 2 (?) - See above
Feb. 23 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 7 (W) - The Hawks haven't shown me much.
Feb. 27 at La Salle, 2 (L) - UMass has been awful in recent trips to Gola Arena.
March 2 vs. Temple, 7 (L) - The Owls have historically come together well late in the season and this group has a lot of talent.
March 5 at Fordham, 1 (W) - Tom Pecora will make Fordham better, but not this fast?

Prognosis: As of right now, there are six more projected wins. Six projected losses and seven (?)'s. Win all the W's and two of the ?'s or L's and the season likely gets extende.

KenPom.com Prediction - 17-12 - College hoops stat guru Ken Pomeroy uses a statistical formula that predicts the result of all games.

GAMES OF THE DAY:

MONDAY:

The Big East-Mid East Shootout  - Syracuse plays Morgan State and UConn faces Coppin

TUESDAY:

UNLV at Kansas State -

USC at Tennessee - USC is a team that doesn't seem very good that's been terrific at times. Tennessee is a team that looks very good, but has been very beatable at times, especially lately.

WEDNESDAY:
Missouri vs. Illinois, Texas at Michigan State - There isn't a Big Ten, Big XII shootout, but Wednesday's pits a pair of both league's best teams.

THURSDAY:

Georgetown at Memphis -It must be so much more fun to be a Georgetown fan under John Thompson III than it was under John Thompson. So many more fun games.

FRIDAY:
Watch It's a Wonderful Life.

SATURDAY:

Watch A Christmas Story.

Sunday
Richmond at Seton Hall - I'll never understand why you'd schedule a noon game for the day after Christmas. Is Seton Hall considering joining the A-10? The Pirates scheduled Temple, Xavier, Dayton, UMass and Richmond this season.

QUESTION I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO: Is it worth closing the Luke Cothron loophole or is a school moving down too rare to waste the time on?

WINLESS: UMBC, Colgate, Centernary, Arkansas Pine Bluff

AND LOSSESLESS: Duke, Syracuse, Cincinnati, UConn, Kansas, Ohio State, Northwestern, UCF, San Diego State

BUZZER BEATERS

Have a great holiday all!

...2 days til the Jesse Morgan era...