Tom Izzo always has his team playing well in the NCAA Tournament. Will it get there?

LEADING OFF

There wasn't really any question that the Big East was the best league in college basketball. But when St. John's, the 11th place team in the Big East beats Duke the best team in the ACC, there's certainly no doubt.

PATH TO POSTSEASON

On the blog this season, I'll project each UMass game based on expectations and how it affects the Minutemen's chances of reaching the postseason.

* A projected win (W) means based on rankings, venue etc. The Minutemen should be considered the favorite.

* A projected loss (L) means the Minutemen would be considered the underdog in the game, that a UMass win would be considered an upset.

* A (?) means the game is too close to call right now.

These aren't my predictions as such, simply how the games would be looked at right now.

I'll adjust the projections based on UMass' performance and the performance of the opponent as the season progresses.

By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.

UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

Currently: 13-7
WINS: Rider, Sacred Heart, New Mexico State, TCU, AIC, Holy Cross, Quinnipiac, BU, Dayton, La Salle, Charlotte, St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island
LOSSES: Boston College, Maine, Seton Hall, UCF, CCSU, Xavier, Richmond

Date - Opponent - (Expected result on paper)

Feb. 2 at Saint Louis, 8 (W) - Bills are struggling and UMass is playing well.

Feb. 5 at Saint Joseph’s, 7 (W) - The Hawks haven't shown me much.

Feb. 13 vs. George Washington, 4 (W) - In Amherst, this should be winnable.

Feb. 16 vs. Duquesne, 7 (L) - Dukes have been tremendous.

Feb. 19 at Rhode Island, 2 (?) - Leaning toward a W, but not sure if the location is enough to flip it.
Feb. 23 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 7 (W) - The Hawks haven't shown me much.

Feb. 27 at La Salle, 2 (W) - UMass has been awful in recent trips to Gola Arena, but the Explorers haven't been good

March 2 vs. Temple, 7 (L) - The Owls have historically come together well late in the season and this group has a lot of talent.

March 5 at Fordham, 1 (W) - Tom Pecora will make Fordham better, but not this fast.

Prognosis: As of right now, there are six more projected wins. two projected losses and one ?'s. Win just three of the W's  and the season likely gets extended.

KenPom.com Prediction - 17-12 - College hoops stat guru Ken Pomeroy uses a statistical formula that predicts the result of all games.

GAMES OF THE DAY:

MONDAY:.
Texas at Texas A&M-The Aggies are coming off a tough showing against Nebraska, while the Horns are starting to look like a title contender.

TUESDAY:
Purdue at Wisconsin - Purdue's pounding by Ohio State means it needs to re-establish itself
Penn State at Illinois - The Nittany Lions are trying to play their way into NCAA consideration. Winning here would help.

WEDNESDAY:
Syracuse at UConn -Can the Orange pull out of its slide. Both teams need a win badly.

THURSDAY: .
Gonzaga at Portland -Portland is a snaky NCAA contender and Gonzaga doesn't have much room for error.

FRIDAY -
Harvard at Princeton -The Crimson can seize control of the Ivy.

SATURDAY:
 West Virginia at Villanova - Mountaineers need to rack up wins to stay in NCAA picture.

SUNDAY:
Michigan State at Wisconsin - The once mighty Spartans' margin for error for making the NCAA is small.

QUESTION I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO: Could three of last year's Final Four teams be in the NIT?

WINLESS: Centenary

AND UNDEFEATED: Ohio State

BUZZER BEATERS

UMass has flown to Charlotte, Xavier and St. Bonaventure. It has snowed leading up to the flight out or the flight back every time. UMass is scheduled to fly to Saint Louis on Tuesday. Have a look at the forecast.

...two days til UMass-SLU...