Duke may be No. 1, but Kansas is starting to look like it might be the team to be in March.

LEADING OFF

Just about everyone will be in conference games now which should expose any teams who have thrived on a weak schedule. 

PATH TO POSTSEASON

On the blog this season, I'll project each UMass
game based on expectations and how it affects the Minutemen's chances
of reaching the postseason.

* A projected win (W) means based on rankings, venue etc. The Minutemen should be considered the favorite.

* A projected loss (L) means the Minutemen would be considered the
underdog in the game, that a UMass win would be considered an upset.

* A (?) means the game is too close to call right now.

These aren't my predictions as such, simply how the games would be looked at right now.

I'll adjust the projections based on UMass' performance and the performance of the opponent as the season progresses.

By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.

UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

Currently: 8-4
WINS: Rider, Sacred Heart, New Mexico State, TCU, AIC, Holy Cross, Quinnipiac, BU
LOSSES: Boston College, Maine, Seton Hall, UCF

Date - Opponent - (Expected result on paper)

Tonight at Central Connecticut, 7 (W) -Could be tough as Blue Devils are good at home.

Jan. 9 vs. Dayton, 2 (L) -  UMass has to do more to prove it can beat an A-10 heavyweight.

Jan. 12 at Xavier, 7 (L) - Nobody wins at Xavier

Jan. 15 vs. La Salle at Mass Mutual Center, 1 (?) - La Salle doesn't impress me, but UMass hasn't played well against the Explorers.

Jan. 19 at Charlotte, 7:30 (?) - Charlotte's win over an admittedly bad Georgia Tech team still makes it seem like they're going forward
Jan. 22 vs. Richmond, noon (L) - Maybe the best team in the CAA

Jan. 26 at St. Bonaventure, 7 (?)- Olean is a tough place to play.

Jan. 30 vs. Rhode Island, 4 (?) - Not sure what to make of the Rams yet.

Feb. 2 at Saint Louis, 8 (?) - Not sure exactly who'll be on the roster for Billikens at that point.

Feb. 5 at Saint Joseph’s, 7 (W) - The Hawks haven't shown me much.

Feb. 13 vs. George Washington, 4 (W) - In Amherst this should be winnable.

Feb. 16 vs. Duquesne, 7 (?) - I think the Dukes have potential to be pretty good.
Feb. 19 at Rhode Island, 2 (?) - See above
Feb. 23 vs. Saint Joseph’s, 7 (W) - The Hawks haven't shown me much.
Feb. 27 at La Salle, 2 (L) - UMass has been awful in recent trips to Gola Arena.
March 2 vs. Temple, 7 (L) - The Owls have historically come together well late in the season and this group has a lot of talent.
March 5 at Fordham, 1 (W) - Tom Pecora will make Fordham better, but not this fast?

Prognosis: As of right now, there are five more projected wins. Five projected losses and seven (?)'s. Win all the W's and two of the ?'s or L's and the season likely gets extended.

KenPom.com Prediction - 17-12 - College hoops stat guru Ken Pomeroy uses a statistical formula that predicts the result of all games.

GAMES OF THE DAY:

MONDAY: Georgetown at St. John's  - It's an uncharacteristically weak slate of Monday games.

TUESDAY: UConn at Notre Dame - The Huskies looked vulnerable lately. Can they bounce back in a tough road game ?

WEDNESDAY: BYU at UNLV- One of the best Mountain West games on the schedule

THURSDAY: Xavier at Cincinnati - One of the best rivalries in college basketball almost always produces a great game.

FRIDAY: Cleveland State at Butler - The Vikings can snatch Horizon League favorite status away from the Bulldogs.

SATURDAY: Kansas State at Oklahoma State - Travis Ford's team has a good record. Are they a good team? This could be an indicator.

SUNDAY: Cincinnati at Villanova - The undefeated Bearcats haven't played much of a schedule. Things will get much tougher.

QUESTION I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO: What's wrong with Gary Correia?

WINLESS: UNC-Greensboro, Centenary, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alcorn State

AND LOSSESLESS: Duke, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Kansas, Ohio State, UCF, San Diego State

BUZZER BEATERS

How long can San Diego State stay undefeated? The Aztecs have two
left with UNLV and two left with BYU. Nobody looks at SDSU as a
legitimate title contender, but its not impossible that they could go
into postseason undefeated.

 ...6 days til A-10 play...