The season is a scrum from here.

LEADING OFF

After Sunday's loss at La Salle, for the second time in four days, a UMass player expressed a goal to me unprompted:

"Winning four games in the Atlantic 10 Tournament."

That would be a natural goal - next week. Right now it is misplaced focus and that may be costing the Minutemen.

Reporters hate when players, coaches, etc., talk about "playing one game at a time," because it's been said over and over again to the point of cliche. But it seems like they certainly should be only focusing on their next game.

I'm not sure the UMass players are doing that. I don't know why the Minutemen came out flat against a La Salle team that they should be better than. But they did come out flat and they got pounded.

If UMass wants to make a run in the Atlantic 10 Tournament, it needs to be playing better when it gets there. Getting a good draw wouldn't hurt either. The Minutemen could help themselves with success in the next two games. But if the UMass players are thinking about the Atlantic 10 Tournament, they could not only get crushed by Temple, but they risk falling to a Fordham team with nothing to lose on Saturday.

The Atlantic 10 isn't one four-game event for a team. It's four one-game events. If the Minutemen are thinking about winning a championship on Tuesday, they're not likely to make it to Friday.

For a young UMass team, this is a lesson that would be valuable to learn for not only this year, but going forward as well. 

IF THE ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT STARTED TODAY

If the Atlantic 10 Tournament started today, here's how it would look:

* UMass beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton giving the Minutemen the No. 7 seed.

* Dayton beat St. Bonaventure giving the Flyers the No. 8.

* La Salle beat Saint Louis giving the Explorers the No. 10.

First-Round Byes
1. Xavier 13-1 faces winner of St. Bonaventure/Dayton
2. Temple 12-2 faces La Salle/UMass winner
3. Richmond 11-3 faces SLU/GW winner
4. Rhode Island  9-4 faces Duquesne/SJU winner

First-round games at home sites:
No. 12 Saint Joseph's (3-11)  at No. 5. Duquesne (9-5)
No. 11 Saint Louis (5-9) at No. 6. George Washington (8-6)
No. 10 La Salle (5-9) at No. 7 UMass (7-7)
No. 9 St. Bonaventure (7-7) at No. 8 Dayton (7-7)

Remaining games

*1. Xavier 13-1 - vs. Charlotte, at SLU
*2. Temple 12-2 -   at UMass, vs La Salle
+3. Richmond 11-3 - at St. Joes, vs. Duquesne
+4. Rhode Island 9-5 - vs. GW, at SBU

+5. Duquesne 9-5 - vs. SBU, at Richmond
+6George Washington 8-6 - at URI, vs. Dayton,
+7. UMass 7-7 - vs. Temple, at Fordham
+8. Dayton 7-7 - vs. SLU, vs. GW

+9. St. Bonaventure 7-7 -  at Duquesne, vs. URI
+10. La Salle 5-9 - vs Fordham, at Temple
+11. Saint Louis 5-9 - at Dayton vs. X

12. Saint Joseph's 3-11 - vs. Richmond, at Charlotte
12. Charlotte 2-12 - at Xavier, vs. St. Joe's

^Fordham 0-13 - vs. URI, at La Salle, vs. UMass

* Clinched a first round bye
+ Clinched Tournament berth
^ Incapable of earning a tournament berth

PATH TO POSTSEASON

On the blog this season, I'll project each UMass game based on expectations and how it affects the Minutemen's chances of reaching the postseason.

* A projected win (W) means based on rankings, venue etc. The Minutemen should be considered the favorite.

* A projected loss (L) means the Minutemen would be considered the underdog in the game, that a UMass win would be considered an upset.

* A (?) means the game is too close to call right now.

These aren't my predictions as such, simply how the games would be looked at right now.

I'll adjust the projections based on UMass' performance and the performance of the opponent as the season progresses.

By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass teams with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.

UMass has 29 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game (I'm aware that two A-10 teams won't make the tournament, but if this execise is going to be relevant, UMass has to be good enough to make the A-10 Tournament). So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

Currently: 15-12
WINS: Rider, Sacred Heart, New Mexico State, TCU, AIC, Holy Cross, Quinnipiac, BU, Dayton, La Salle, Charlotte, St.Bonaventure, Rhode Island (2), St. Joe's

LOSSES: Boston College, Maine, Seton Hall, UCF, CCSU, Xavier, Richmond, SLU, St. Joe's, GW, Duquesne, La Salle

Date - Opponent - (Expected result on paper)

March 2 vs. Temple, 7 (L) - The Owls have historically come together well late in the season and this group has a lot of talent.

March 5 at Fordham, 1 (?) -

Prognosis: As of right now, there are no more projected wins, one projected loss and one ?. Win one game and the Minutemen are guaranteed 16 wins

KenPom.com Prediction - 16-13 - College hoops stat guru Ken Pomeroy uses a statistical formula that predicts the result of all games.

GAMES OF THE DAY:

MONDAY:. Kansas State at Texas - Can Texas get its ship righted? Is K-State already in?
TUESDAY: BC at Virginia Tech - Despite what Dick Vitale said, I'm not sure beating Duke clinched a spot for the Hokies. I do know BC has work to do.
WEDNESDAY: Cincinnati at Marquette - Big East Bubble Battle
THURSDAY:  Tennessee at South Carolina - The Vols aren't nearly as solid as they were before.
FRIDAY: - Watch conference tournament games.
SATURDAY: Princeton at Harvard -If Harvard wins, this could force a one-game playoff in the Ivy League.
Duke at Carolina - An upset seems very possible.

SUNDAY:  Penn State at Minnesota-Loser of this game is in trouble. Winner has lots of work.

Question I don't know the answer to: Why is the Office continuing after Steve Carell leaves?

BUZZER BEATERS
If the Big East gets 11 teams in, it's going to be awfully hard to keep those teams from playing each other in earlier rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

...seven days til the day guide...