Friday, February 13, 2009
If the tournament started today, this is how the seeds would break down. This is not official. Official seeds are announced Feb. 21 at 12:30 p.m. at the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Note that as more teams qualify for the postseason, the rankings can vary greatly.
Before breaking out the results, let me run down what you're looking at below. There are three numbers after each team. These numbers reflect how that teams ranks within its division in the three categories used by the Walker.
First number: Winning percentage
Second number: Strength of schedule. You get four points for a D1 win, three for a D2 win and two for a D3 win. Take the total and divide it by the total number of games played.
Third number: Performance vs. tournament teams. This is the same mathematical equation as the second number, but its only for games against teams in the postseason.
Then each team is ranked in each category and the rankings themselves are added up, so a team that is first, third, first has a total of 5. The teams are then ranked based on that total number and there are your Walker rankings. And yes, this reminds each year of why I decided against going into a career involving mathematics when I was in high school.
Playoff picture is at the bottom. Here we go:
Division 1
Note: Amazing how perfectly the numbers are in D1 right now.
1. Minnechaug (1-1-1)
2. East Longmeadow (2-2-2)
3. Northampton (3-3-3)
4. Ludlow (4-4-4)
5. Central (5-5-5)
6. Holyoke (6-6-6)
7. Agawam (7-7-7)
8. West Side (8-8-8)
Best potential matchup: Central-Ludlow at Ludlow could be very interesting, but I think Holyoke at Northampton could be a very dangerous game for Hamp, which has beaten the Purple Knights twice already this season.
Division 2
Note: I'm doing what the tourney committee did last year and automatically placing Gateway (Tri-County team) and Hampshire (got in via Sullivan 70% Rule) at the bottom. Gateway was placed ahead of Hampshire last year, which I disagree with, but I'm going for accuracy here.
1. Palmer (1-1-1)
2. Monument (4-2-2)
3. Mohawk (2-4-3)
4. Commerce (3-3-5)
5. Mahar (5-5-4)
6. Athol (7-8-6)
7. Drury (8-7-7) - Takes tiebreaker over Wahconah by winning two categories
8. Wahconah (6-8-8)
9. Hoosac Valley (9-9-11) - Takes tiebreaker with Belchertown by winning two categories
10. Belchertown (10-10-9)
11. Frontier (11-11-10)
12. Gateway Regional (Tri-County)
13. Hampshire (Sullivan Rule)
Best potential matchup: Interesting that Hampshire would play Commerce in this situation, as it seems like maybe the Springfield school is the one that should be in the D-1 Suburban League instead of Desi Vega's crew. Also love the potential of a Drury-Monument quarterfinal as the teams split during the regular season and the atmosphere could be fantastic.
Division 3
Note: I'm taking out the Tri-County teams for the reasons listed above. League champ sometimes gets No. 8 seed for first-round home game, which I'm expecting this year with Putnam.
1. Lee (4-1-1)
2. Sabis (3-2-2) - Takes tiebreaker with Ware by winning two categories
3. Ware (1-3-3)
4. Monson (1-4-4)
5. Smith Academy (5-5-5)
6. New Leadership (5-6-6)
7. McCann Tech (7-7-7)
8. Putnam (TCL winner)
9. Franklin Tech (TCL)
Best potential matchup: Bilqis Abdul-Qaadir vs. Justine King could be fun and Smith at Monson would be excellent.
Bubble Watch
Division 1
Amherst (8-9) - at East Longmeadow (tonight), Hampshire (2/16), Chicopee Comp (2/18)
Chicopee Comp (9-9) - Chicopee (2/17), at Amherst (2/18)
Pittsfield (7-10) - Taconic (tonight), at Monument (2/16), Drury (2/18)
Division 2
Easthampton (9-9) - at Monson (tonight), Athol (2/16)
Mount Greylock (8-8) - St. Joe (2/16), at Hoosac (2/18)
Division 3
Lenox (4-13) - Needs win at St. Joe on 2/18 to get in via Sullivan Rule
Pathfinder (8-9) - at Franklin Tech (2/16), Gateway (2/17), Gateway (2/19)
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Wednesday, February 11, 2009
NOTE: Gazette High School coverage is now completely free online.
Here's the third installment of the playoff picture, with records updated through Tuesday night's games. I'll have the first Walkertology up in a bit. Should be interesting (and probably inaccurate!).
DIVISION 1
Clinched: Agawam (10-7), Central (12-5), East Longmeadow (14-2), Holyoke (13-5), Ludlow (14-3), Minnechaug (15-2), Northampton (14-2), West Springfield (10-8)
On the bubble
Amherst (8-9) - The Hurricanes need two wins out of East Longmeadow (Feb. 13), Hampshire (Feb. 16) and Chicopee Comp (Feb. 18)
Chicopee Comp (8-9) - The Colts need two wins out of Hampshire (Feb. 12), Chicopee (Feb. 17) and Amherst (Feb. 18)
Pittsfield (6-10) - Must win out with Taconic (Feb. 13), Monument (Feb. 16) and Drury (Feb. 18) and St. Joe (???) left on the schedule.
DIVISION 2
Clinched: Athol (13-3), Belchertown (12-7), Commerce (16-2), Drury (11-5), Gateway (9-4), Hampshire (5-13), Hoosac Valley (11-6), Mahar (14-3), Mohawk (17-0), Monument (14-2), Palmer (18-0), Wahconah (11-6)
On the bubble
Easthampton (8-9, 8-8 Franklin South) - More likely to get in with 10 wins than by finishing in second place in the league, as the Red Hawks have two easier Franklin games remaining. Have Hopkins (Feb. 12), Monson (Feb. 13) and Athol (Feb. 16) remaining. Monson is non-league.
Frontier (9-9, 8-8 Franklin South) - Will almost certainly wrap up the postseason berth with a win over Turners on senior night Thursday.
Mount Greylock (7-8) - Needs two wins out of Lenox (Feb. 12), St. Joe (Feb. 16) and Hoosac (Feb. 18). Have gone 2-1 against those three earlier this year.
DIVISION 3
Clinched: Franklin Tech (12-5), Lee (13-4), McCann (10-9), Monson (14-3), New Leadership (12-6), Putnam (16-1), Sabis (14-4), Smith Academy (11-6), Ware (13-3)
On the bubble
Hopkins Academy (8-10) - Golden Hawks need two big-time wins over Easthampton (Feb. 12) and Monson (Feb. 18) to get in.
Lenox (4-12) - Will get in via the 70 percent rule with a win over Lee (Feb. 16) or St. Joseph (Feb. 18).
Pathfinder (7-7) - Could come down to the wire with two games remaining against Gateway.
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Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Work on a big project for down the line has knocked me off schedule a little. Let's jump right into the second playoff picture.
DIVISION 1
Clinched
Central (10-5)
East Longmeadow (12-1)
Holyoke (12-3)
Ludlow (10-3)
Minnechaug (11-3)
Northampton (11-2)
In Good Shape
Agawam (8-6) - The Brownies have lost two in a row, but should still get two wins out of Westfield (2/4) and Cathedral (2/9). Best guess: 10-10
West Springfield (8-7) - Similar to Agawam, West Side has lost two straight, but things get easier after Wednesday's game vs. Northampton with Pittsfield (2/6), Westfield (2/9) and at Chicopee (2/12). Best guess: 11-9
On the Bubble
Amherst (6-8) - The Hurricanes need four wins out of Belchertown (2/4), Holyoke (2/6), Ludlow (2/9), East Longmeadow (2/13), Hampshire (2/16) and Chicopee Comp (2/18). Best guess: 10-10
Chicopee Comp (8-7) - Have won three of four to get to this point and now need two more wins. Have Ludlow (2/5) and East Longmeadow (2/9) next, so Colts could go right up against the wall. Best guess: 10-10
Pittsfield (6-7) - Having a hard time seeing how this is going to work out well for the Generals. Best guess: 9-11
In Rough Shape
Longmeadow (5-10) - If they aren't eliminated at Central on Thursday, it'll almost certainly happen against Minnechaug on 2/9. Best guess: 6-14.
Eliminated
Cathedral (1-15)
Chicopee (3-12)
Sci-Tech (0-14)
Taconic (4-11)
Westfield (3-11)
DIVISION 2
Clinched
Athol (10-3)
Belchertown (10-5)
Commerce (13-2)
Hampshire Regional (4-12)
Mahar (12-3)
Mohawk (15-0)
Monument Mountain (12-2)
Palmer (15-0)
In Good Shape
Drury (9-5) - Will almost certainly get it Thursday against Lenox. Best guess: 14-6.
Gateway Regional (9-3) - Should clinch with a win over Westfield Voke on Wednesday. Best guess: 12-7
Hoosac Valley (9-6) - Should get in at winless Sci-Tech on Wednesday. Best guess: 12-8
Wahconah (9-5) - No worries here. Best guess: 12-8
On the Bubble
Easthampton (7-8) - Could get in with 10 wins or second place in the Franklin South. Best guess: 10-10
Frontier Regional (8-8) - Same as Easthampton, but more likely to get to 10 wins. Best guess: 10-10
Mount Greylock (6-7) - I have them with 18 games and needing three wins against Taconic (2/5), Drury (2/9), Lenox (2/12), St. Joseph (2/16) and Hoosac (2/18). Best guess: 9-9
In Rough Shape
Holyoke Catholic (7-10) - Must win out against Belchertown, Commerce and Granby. Best guess: 8-12.
Eliminated
Greenfield (2-12)
South Hadley (3-13)
Southwick (1-13)
DIVISION 3
Clinched
Franklin Tech (11-4)
Lee (12-3)
Monson (13-1)
New Leadership (10-6)
Putnam (12-1)
Sabis (13-3)
Smith Academy (10-5)
Ware (11-2)
In Good Shape
Lenox (4-10) - Still haven't heard about their 70 percent rule situation, although I believe they qualify for it. Therefore, they basically need to beat St. Joe twice to get in. Best guess: In via 70 percent rule
McCann Tech (8-7) - Have very winnable games remaining. Best guess: 11-9
On the Bubble
Pathfinder (6-7) - Best guess: 10-10
In Rough Shape
Hopkins Academy (6-9) - Tough to see how the math would work out to get them to .500 or second place in the Franklin South. Best guess: 8-12
Pioneer Christian (3-9) - Best guess: 4-16
Westfield Vocational (4-10) - Best guess: 6-14
Eliminated
Dean (1-12)
Granby (4-11)
Mount Everett (8-7)
Pioneer Regional (3-12)
St. Joe (0-12)
St. Mary (0-16)
Smith Vocational (1-11)
Turners Falls (1-15)
I'll be back Thursday with the top 10s.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
I expect all the teams in the “Very Close” category to qualify. As for the teams on the bubble, I did not factor in second place in the league because that is way too complicated at this point. I also gave my prediction on which bubble teams will qualify. We will absolutely revisit this later.
DIVISION 1
QUALIFIED
Sci-Tech (10-3), Chicopee (10-3), East Longmeadow (10-3), Northampton (11-2)
VERY CLOSE
Central (9-5), Commerce (8-6), Minnechaug (8-4)
ON THE BUBBLE
Cathedral (4-9) - Best chance comes at second place in the league but mostly likely will be on the outside looking in with Central, Sci-Tech and Commerce the three likely Valley League reps. Best bet: 6-14
Westfield (5-7) - Off to a good start in league at 2-1. With Chicopee the likely favorite to win the league with Minnechaug in second, it comes down to the Bombers, Lancers and Colts fighting for wins. Best bet: 7-13
Chicopee Comp (6-7) - See Westfield. Best bet: 9-11
Longmeadow (5-7) - See Westfield. Best bet: 10-10
Putnam (4-9) - Chances are small. Best bet: 5-15
Ludlow (4-9) - Chances are small. Best bet: 4-16
West Springfield (7-6) - Terriers need three and should get them among Agawam twice, South Hadley and Ludlow. Bet bet: 11-9
Holyoke (3-9) – Purple Knights have a tough road ahead. Best bet: 4-16
ELIMINATED
Amherst (2-11), Agawam (2-11), Pittsfield (2-11)
DIVISION 2
QUALIFIED
Palmer (10-4), Hoosac (12-2), Drury (10-3),
VERY CLOSE
South Hadley (5-6, needs to beat either Southwick or Holyoke Catholic), Mohawk (9-4), Belchertown (9-6), Hampshire (8-6), Taconic (9-4), Wahconah (8-6)
ON THE BUBBLE
Mahar (6-6) - Senators looking at Athol, Pioneer Christian, Smith Academy and Greenfield as key games to win. Other four games are Easthampton, Frontier, Turners and Mohawk. Best bet: 10-10
Holyoke Catholic (4-8) - Needs six more wins and should beat Gateway, Southwick, St. Mary’s and Renaissance for four of them. That leaves two with South Hadley, Sabis, NLCS and Hampshire. It’s unlikely the Gaels beat Sabis and NLCS leaving big games next Monday against South Hadley (which can qualify with a win over Catholic), and the season finale against Hampshire. Best bet: 8-12
Greenfield (4-9) - The Wave need six wins and should get three against Smith Academy, Hopkins and Athol. Remained games include Easthampton, Mohawk, Pioneer Regional and Mahar. Not looking good. Best bet: 7-13
Monument (4-9) - Spartans need to upset either Taconic or Drury to give themselves a chance. Best bet: 7-13
Mount Greylock (4-8) - Mounties needs nine wins with a 18-game slate. Has St. Joseph, Drury, Monument, Lenox, Wahconah and Lee. Went 3-3 against these foes already. Best bet: 6-12
Southwick (5-8) - Rams need five wins and it will be very tough with Sabis twice, NLCS, Hampshire and South Hadley among their final seven games. Best bet: 6-14
ELIMINATED
Athol (1-13), Gateway (2-10)
DIVISION 3
QUALIFIED
Easthampton (10-3), Frontier (10-3), Lee (11-3), New Leadership (12-1), Sabis (13-1)
VERY CLOSE
Pioneer Regional (8-4), St. Joseph (9-4), Turners Falls (9-3)
ON THE BUBBLE
Granby (6-6) - Rams need four wins and should get them against Smith Vocational, Pathfinder, St. Mary’s and Pioneer Christian. Any slip up means they need to beat either Ware, Palmer, Belchertown or Monson. Best bet: 11-9
Hopkins (6-8) - Golden Hawks need four wins and has a brutal closing stretch against Pioneer Regional, Mohawk, Athol, Greenfield, Easthampton and Turners. They should beat Athol and Greenfield to give themselves a chance. Best best: 8-12
Monson (5-8) - Mustangs should take it to the wire. Needs four five wins among Belchertown, PVCS, Ware, McCann Tech, Pathfinder, Palmer and Granby. Best bet: 9-11
Ware (6-8) - Indians need four wins with Pittsfield, Granby, Palmer, Monson, Belchertown and PVCS. Best bet: 8-12
McCann Tech (7-6) - McCann is 6-1 and in first place in the Tri-County League. The Hornets should get in with at least 10 wins. Best bet: 12-8
Dean Tech (6-6) – Dean is 5-2 in the TCL and should get in with at least 10 wins. Best bet: 10-10
Franklin (7-5) – Franklin is 4-3 in the TCL and should get in with at least 10 wins. Best bet: 11-9
St. Mary (4-9) - Saints have a lot of work to do. Best bet: 6-14
Smith Vocational (4-8) - Vikings are in the Saints boat except need a little more help. Best bet: 6-12
Lenox (6-7) - Lenox qualified last year via the 70 percent rule and they can do it again this year. They may have qualified already but I haven’t been able to confirm it yet. The Millionaires have Taconic, Wahconah, Mt. Everett, St. Joe’s, Mt. Greylock, Lee and Monument left. They went 2-4 already this year.
Pioneer Christian (3-9) - PVCS needs to win out. Best bet: 4-15
Westfield Voke (3-8) - WVT needs to win out. Best bet: 5-13.
ELIMINATED
Mt. Everett (3-13), Pathfinder (2-10), Renaissance School (2-10), Smith Academy (2-11)
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
NOTE: All Gazette high school sports coverage is now completely free online.
Updated top 10s will be up by Thursday morning.
I'm mostly going to ignore the league races for now as there are just way too many variables this far out. Once things get a little more cleared up, I'll start breaking down those automatic qualifiers as well.
DIVISION 1
Clinched
East Longmeadow (10-1)
Holyoke (10-3)
Minnechaug (10-2)
Northampton (10-2)
In Good Shape
Agawam (8-4) - Not a given, as the Brownies have two remaining games against both Central and Minnechaug along with another against Ludlow. But they should be able to come up with two wins out of Westfield, Cathedral and Longmeadow.
Central (8-5) - Have lost three of five, but knocked off Minnechaug on Monday. Should get to at least 12 or 13 wins, minimum.
Ludlow (7-2) - Amazing that they still have so many games left.
West Springfield (8-4) - Enough winnable games remaining to be confident that they'll get in, but there are challenges too with two each against Holyoke and Northampton.
On the Bubble
Chicopee Comp (6-6) - Could be in trouble. Have eight games left, including seven rematches. In the first matchups, the Colts went 4-3, including a somewhat shocking upset of Ludlow. Three other wins were Sci-Tech, Hampshire Chicopee. Losses were to Longmeadow, East Longmeadow, Amherst.
Pittsfield (6-6) - If I had to pick one of these two .500 teams to make the tourney, I'd go with Comp. The Generals need four wins out of West Side, St. Joseph, Hoosac Valley, Wahconah, Lee, Taconic, Monument and Drury. Could come down to that Drury game.
Amherst (5-8) - As submarined by injuries as any team, this is a longshot at this point. Must go 5-2 against a schedule of Hampshire (twice), Belchertown, Holyoke, Ludlow, East Longmeadow, Chicopee Comp. Doable, but they need Alyssa Leonard back to have any chance of posting that kind of run against that schedule.
In Rough Shape
Longmeadow (4-9) - Lancers were 4-5 not that long ago, but have suffered four straight losses to Holyoke, Central, Minnechaug and Agawam. Now they need to go 6-1 against a schedule that includes Central, Minnechaug, Agawam and East Longmeadow. Yuck.
Taconic (3-9) - Not with that remaining Berkshire North schedule.
Chicopee (3-10) - Would be a turnaround for the ages.
Westfield (3-10) - Remaining schedule is even harder than Chicopee's.
Eliminated
Cathedral (1-13)
Sci-Tech (0-12)
DIVISION 2
Clinched
Commerce (11-2)
Hampshire (4-10)
Mahar (11-2)
Mohawk (13-0)
Monument Mountain (10-2)
Palmer (13-0)
In Good Shape
Athol (9-2) - No worries here.
Belchertown (8-4) - Should get to at least 11 wins
Drury (8-4) - A few tough games coming up, but the Blue Devils will return to the postseason after a one-year absence.
Gateway (7-3) - Two wins away from reaching the tourney for the second-straight year.
Wahconah (8-4) - Have won five of six to get to this position. Will get to at least 11 wins.
On the Bubble
Easthampton (5-8) - Even trying to figure out second place in the Franlin South makes my head hurt.
Frontier (6-7) - Ditto.
Hoosac Valley (7-6) - Were once 6-1, but have lost five of their last six and onto the bubble. Still, the Hurricanes should get to their 10 wins.
Mount Greylock (6-5) - The Mounties could be in some trouble with a daunting final seven games.
In Rough Shape
Greenfield (2-10) - 8-0 isn't happening with that schedule.
Holyoke Catholic (6-9) - Eight-game losing streak did them in. Now they need to upset two of Belchertown, New Leadership or Commerce.
Eliminated
South Hadley (3-11)
Southwick (1-12)
DIVISION 3
Clinched
Lee (10-3)
Monson (11-1)
Putnam (11-1)
Sabis (12-2)
Ware (10-2)
In Good Shape
Franklin (9-4) - Will cruise into the tournament.
McCann Tech (8-6) - Very winnable games ahead.
New Leadership (7-6) - Wildcats will get there.
Smith Academy (9-4) - Should win the Franklin South.
On the Bubble
Lenox (4-8) - Trying to find out if they qualify for the 70 percent rule this year.
Pathfinder (6-6) - Could come right down to the last game or two.
In Rough Shape
Granby (4-9) - Had to come up with a win against Hopkins last week to have a decent chance. Now they must win one of Belchertown and Palmer.
Hopkins (5-8) - Schedule makes it look very difficult, but not impossible.
Pioneer Christian (3-9) - Very unlikely.
Westfield Vocational (4-8) - Too many tough league games remaining.
Eliminated
Dean Tech (1-11)
Mount Everett (5-11)
Pioneer Regional (2-11)
St. Joseph (0-10)
St. Mary (0-14)
Smith Vocational (1-10)
Turners Falls (1-13)
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Friday, October 17, 2008
We ran our boys soccer and girls soccer playoff pictures in Thursday's paper. Here's a quick look at the playoff situation for our field hockey and volleyball teams:
Field hockey
IN
South Hadley (12-3, 7-0 D Division)
BUBBLE
Smith Academy (8-6-1, 2-4 A Division) - The Falcons need one point in their final three games to clinch a berth in the postseason. The defending Division 2 champs have Athol (10/17), Mohawk (10/22) and Minnechaug (10/23) left on their schedule.
Amherst (6-4-3, 2-1-2 B Division) - The Hurricanes are also one point shy of clinching a postseason berth. They have Northampton (see below, 10/17), Longmeadow (10/21) and West Side (10/23) left on their schedule.
Northampton (5-7-2, 1-2-2 B Division) - Hamp, which is D-1, needs six points in its final four games to reach the postseason for the first time since 2004. The Blue Devils have Amherst (10/17), Cathedral (10/20), Southwick (10/21) and Longmeadow (10/23) left on their schedule.
OUT
Frontier (4-10-2, 1-5-1 A Division)
Girls volleyball
IN
Amherst (11-2, 9-2 Eastern)
Frontier Regional (14-0, 12-0 Northern)
Belchertown (10-6, 9-3 Northern)
South Hadley (12-3, 5-2 Southern B)
Easthampton (9-6, 7-1 Southern A) - The Eagles clinched a postseason berth with their 3-0 win over Central Thursday.
