Wednesday, February 18, 2009
WALKERTOLOGY
If the tournament started today, this is how the seeds would break down. This is not official. Official seeds are announced Feb. 21 at 12:30 p.m. at the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Couple things: Monument (9-11) and Mahar (10-9) qualified Tuesday. If Westfield beats Comp on Wednesday the Bombers qualify. That’s the only team left on the bubble. I also scrapped the first edition of the Walker in Division 3 and broke the Tri-County teams out. That’s what they do.
A lot can still change with two days left. South Hadley plays East Longmeadow on Wednesday and Thursday. Mohawk plays Turners and Easthampton plays Pioneer Regional. All these games can effect the seed order.
Division 1
1. Northampton
2. Sci-Tech
3. Minnechaug
4. East Longmeadow
5. Central
6. Chicopee
7. Commerce
8. West Springfield
Division 2
1. Hoosac
2. Taconic
3. Drury
4. Palmer
5. Belchertown
6. Wahconah
7. Mohawk
8. South Hadley
9. Hampshire
10. Mahar
11. Monument
Division 3
1. Sabis
2. New Leadership
3. Turners
4. Lee
5. Pioneer Regional
6. Frontier Regional
7. Easthampton
8. St. Joseph
9. Granby
10. Lenox
11. Franklin Tech
12. McCann Tech
13. Dean Tech
Monday, February 16, 2009
WALKERTOLOGY
If the tournament started today, this is how the seeds would break down. This is not official. Official seeds are announced Feb. 21 at 12:30 p.m. at the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Here are a few things to consider (if my math is correct, and not to brag but I was really close last year) when looking at the seeds:
In Division 1 if both Northampton and Sci-Tech wins out, Hamp would get the No. 1 seed. Hamp has West Side and Ludlow. Sci-Tech has Central and Cathedral. Even if Westfield or Longmeadow qualify, neither will help Sci-Tech. The Cybercats need Hamp to lose one its final two games.
In Division 2, the race for the second seed is very close. Drury leads Taconic by 0.5 points. What’s interesting here is that Taconic hosts Drury on Tuesday and while the winner may well claim that second seed, it’s not a guarantee. It will also depend on Monument, Longmeadow and Westfield and weather those teams qualify. Drury went 1-1 against Monument while Taconic went 1-0. Taconic also beat Westfield and lost to Longmeadow. Drury and Taconic are currently tied in the third category.
In Division 3, Turners Falls and Pioneer Regional are tied for third. Turners currently wins two of the three categories and wins the third seed. This of course also depends on their final games. Turners has Hopkins and Mohawk. Pioneer Regional has Frontier and Easthampton.
Also, and this is important, I did a second version of Division 3. In the first all the teams are ranked together. In the second one, I pulled the Tri-County League teams out and ran the Walker with just them. Oddly, the winner of the TCL won’t even finish first. Franklin Tech, which is in third place in the league, comes out on top.
The reason why I did this is because usually the committee gives the winner of the league a home game in the postseason. They do this by ranking the teams separately then seeing how it shakes out. Last year Pathfinder was the eighth seed. I really don’t see the committee doing that this year considering the third place team in the league will have better Walker numbers than the first two. With this in mind, the second version of Division 3 reflects this ranking. I think the three TCL teams will just round out the bottom three seeds.
Bubble teams remaining: Division 1: Westfield (8-10), Longmeadow (8-10) Division 2: Monument (8-11), Mahar (9-9) Division 3: Monson (9-10), Hopkins Academy (9-10)
Click here for the boys hoop standings.
Division 1
1. Northampton
2. Sci-Tech
3. Minnechaug
4. East Longmeadow
5. Chicopee
6. Central
7. Commerce
8. West Springfield
Division 2
1. Hoosac
2. Drury
3. Taconic
4. Palmer
5. Belchertown
6. Wahconah
7. Mohawk
8. South Hadley
9. Hampshire
Division 3
1. Sabis
2. New Leadership
3. Turners
4. Pioneer
5. Easthampton
6. Lee
7. Frontier
8. Franklin Tech
9. St. Joseph
10. McCann Tech
11. Dean Tech
12. Granby
13. Lenox
Division 3 revised
1. Sabis
2. New Leadership
3. Turners
4. Pioneer
5. Easthampton
6. Lee
7. Frontier
8. St. Joseph
9. Granby
10. Lenox
11. Franklin Tech
12. Dean Tech
13. McCann Tech
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
WALKERTOLOGY
If the tournament started today, this is how the seeds would break down. This is not official. Official seeds are announced Feb. 21 at 12:30 p.m. at the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Division 1
1. Northampton
2. Sci-Tech
3. East Longmeadow
4. Minnechaug
5. Chicopee
6. Central
7. Commerce
8. West Springfield
Division 2
1. Hoosac
2. Drury
3. Taconic
4. Palmer
5. Belchertown
6. Wahconah
7. Mohawk
8. South Hadley
9. Hampshire
Division 3
1. Sabis
2. New Leadership
3. Pioneer
4. Turners
5. Frontier
6. Easthampton
7. Lee
8. St. Joseph
9. Franklin Tech
10. McCann Tech
11. Dean Tech
12. Lenox
Six teams clinched postseason berths Tuesday. Eight more have the
opportunity with less than two weeks remaining. Next to join the club:
Granby and/or Hopkins. Granby (9-8) has St. Mary Thursday. Hopkins
(9-9) plays Easthampton Friday. See below for updated Bubble Watch.
BUBBLE WATCH
DIVISION 1
QUALIFIED
Sci-Tech (13-3), Chicopee (12-4), East Longmeadow (11-4), Northampton (14-2), Minnechaug (12-4), Central (10-6), Commerce (10-7), West Springfield (10-7)
BUBBLE
VALLEY WHEEL keeps spinning
Longmeadow (7-10) - Lancers have Comp, Westfield and Putnam in their final three.
Chicopee Comp (7-10) - Colts have Longmeadow, Minnechaug and Westfield.
Westfield (7-10) - Bombers have Chicopee, Longmeadow and Comp.
It’s quit possible all three knock each other out. It’s highly unlikely two get in. If one gets in it should be Longmeadow. The Lancers have the easier road record wise.
ELIMINATED
Amherst (3-14), Agawam (4-13), Pittsfield (4-13), Ludlow (4-13), Cathedral (5-12), Putnam (5-12), Holyoke (4-13)
DIVISION 2
QUALIFIED
Palmer (14-4), Hoosac (15-3), Drury (15-3), South Hadley (6-9), Mohawk (11-6), Belchertown (12-6), Taconic (12-6), Wahconah (10-8), Hampshire (10-8)
BUBBLE
Mahar (8-8) - Senators have Pioneer Christian, Smith Academy, Mohawk and Greenfield and needs two wins. Could get three.
Race for Second place in Berkshire South
Monument (6-11) - The Spartans (4-7) are one game behind Lee (5-6) for second place. Monument has first-place St. Joseph (5-5) and Lenox (2-9). Lee has Lenox (2-9) and Mt. Greylock (2-9). St. Joe’s has Monument, and North powers Taconic and Hoosac.
Keep in mind that if Lee and St. Joe’s tied for first, Monument would not get in. If say Lee wins the South and St. Joe’s and Monument tie for second, MM gets in.
ELIMINATED
Athol (1-17), Gateway (2-13), Southwick (5-12), Greenfield (5-12), Holyoke Catholic (6-11), Mt. Greylock (4-12)
DIVISION 3
QUALIFIED
Easthampton (12-5), Frontier (12-5), Lee (12-6), New Leadership (15-2), Sabis (17-1), St. Joseph (11-6), Turners Falls (13-4), Lenox (8-10), Pioneer Regional (12-4), McCann Tech (10-8), Franklin Tech (10-6, Dean Tech (10-7)
BUBBLE
Granby (9-8) - Rams should beat St. Mary’s Thursday to qualify.
Hopkins (9-9) - Needs to beat either Easthampton on Friday or Turners on Tuesday.
Monson (8-9) - Final three include Pathfinder, Palmer and Granby. Will beat Pathfinder. Won’t beat Palmer. It will come down to Granby, which beat the Mustangs 60-45 on Dec. 18.
ELIMINATED
Westfield Voke (4-12), Mt. Everett (3-16), Pathfinder (4-12), Renaissance School (2-13), Smith Academy (3-14), Pioneer Christian (3-12), Ware (6-11), St. Mary (7-11)
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Six teams can punch their ticket to the postseason with wins tonight. Here is a breakdown of those games.
Commerce (9-7) — The Red Raiders face Cathedral. They won on Jan. 23 at Cathedral 65-63. Commerce has won 3-of-5 but has been inconsistent. They beat Sci-Tech and Cathedral then lost to Amherst, beat Holyoke in OT then lost by seven to Sci-Tech. Cathedral is 5-11 and out of playoff contention. They recently snapped a four-game skid with a win over Holyoke. Take Commerce minus 3.
West Springfield (9-7) — The defending champs have won 5-of-7 but have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. Good thing for the Terriers they play Ludlow (4-12) and are 9-1 against teams with losing records. Take West Side minus 9.
Hampshire (9-8) — Injuries, illness and a tough schedule have prevented the Red Raiders from being consistent. They opened the season with a four-game win streak then fell to Easthampton, Sabis and Frontier. Then the health problems came and they went 2-3. Hampshire got healthy and won three straight only to lose to Drury at the buzzer and NLCS in a tough one. All that should change tonight when they face the Gators (2-13), who have lost 12 straight and allowed nearly 20 more points than they score. Take Hampshire minus 15.
McCann Tech (9-8) — The wild Tri-County League can send three teams to the postseason tonight. McCann faces Smith Voke (4-11), which beat the Hornets 60-57 on Dec. 16. McCann has lost two straight. Smith Voke has lost three straight and 6-of-7. McCann is 6-3 at home where they have won five straight. Take McCann minus 2.
Dean Tech (9-7) — The Golden Hawks have won 4-of-5 and scored at least 70 points in two of those wins. They defeated WVT 60-34 on Jan. 14. The Tigers (3-11) are 3-3 at home and are 3-4 in their last seven. Take Dean minus 11.
Franklin Tech (9-6) — Franklin has won two straight and hosts St. Mary (7-10), which is looking to avoid elimination for the four straight time. The Saints beat Smith Voke, McCann and Holyoke Catholic in OT and have been playing well. St. Mary won 75-67 on Jan. 15. Take St. Mary plus 5.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Click here for the high school basketball standings. Despite what it says both are updated through Sunday's games.
WALKERTOLOGY
If the tournament started today, this is how the seeds would break down. This is not official. Official seeds are announced Feb. 21 at 12:30 p.m. at the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Division 1
1. Northampton
2. Sci-Tech
3. East Longmeadow
4. Minnechaug
5. Chicopee
6. Central
Division 2
1. Hoosac
2. Drury
3. Taconic
4. Palmer
5. Wahconah
6. Belchertown
7. Mohawk
Division 3
1. Sabis
2. New Leadership
3. Frontier
4. Turners
5. Pioneer Regional
6. St. Joseph
7. Easthampton
8. Lee
9. Lenox
BUBBLE WATCH
DIVISION 1
QUALIFIED
Sci-Tech (13-3), Chicopee (12-4), East Longmeadow (11-4), Northampton (14-2), Minnechaug (12-4), Central (10-6)
VERY CLOSE
Commerce (9-7) - Most likely they qualify Tuesday with a win over Cathedral.
West Springfield (9-7) - The Terriers should beat Ludlow on Tuesday to get in.
BUBBLE
Longmeadow (7-8) - It’s going to be close but after losing to Minnechaug on Tuesday, the Lancers should beat Comp, Westfield and Putnam in their final three to qualify.
Chicopee Comp (7-9) - Don’t think the Colts get in. They have Chicopee, Longmeadow, Minnechaug and Westfield and need three wins.
Westfield (6-10) - Should beat Putnam to stay in it but won’t beat Chicopee on Friday.
ELIMINATED
Amherst (3-13), Agawam (4-12), Pittsfield (4-12), Ludlow (4-12), Cathedral (5-11), Putnam (4-12), Holyoke (4-12)
DIVISION 2
QUALIFIED
Palmer (13-4), Hoosac (14-3), Drury (14-3), South Hadley (6-8), Mohawk (10-6), Belchertown (12-6), Taconic (11-6), Wahconah (10-7)
VERY CLOSE
Hampshire (9-8) - Most likely Red Raiders beat Gateway Tuesday to get in.
Mahar (8-7) - Two wins should come against Pioneer Christian on Wednesday and Smith Academy on Tuesday. Senators play Turners on Tuesday and Mohawk on Friday.
BUBBLE
Holyoke Catholic (6-10) - Wins over St. Mary and Ranaissance tonight and Wednesday should keep the Gaels in it but NLCS will end their season on Friday.
Race for Second place in Berkshire South
Monument (6-10) and Mount Greylock (4-11)
Neither team can reach .500 so second place is the way to get in.
The Spartans are currently tied with Lee for second place. St. Joe’s is first at 5-4. Lee and MM are 4-6. Greylock is 2-8. Lenox is 1-9. MM has Drury, St. Joe’s and Lenox. Greylock has Lenox, Wahconah and Lee.
It’s going to get wild in Berkshire County.
ELIMINATED
Athol (1-16), Gateway (2-12), Southwick (5-11), Greenfield (5-11)
DIVISION 3
QUALIFIED
Easthampton (11-5), Frontier (12-4), Lee (11-6), New Leadership (14-2), Sabis (16-1), St. Joseph (11-5), Turners Falls (12-4), Lenox (7-10), Pioneer Regional (11-4)
VERY CLOSE
McCann Tech (9-7) - Won’t get it tonight against Monson but should beat Smith Voke Tuesday to get in.
Granby (8-8) - Rams should beat Pathfinder on Tuesday and St. Mary’s Thursday to qualify.
Franklin (9-6) - FCT should beat St. Mary’s on Tuesday to qualify.
Dean Tech (9-7) - Dean should beat Westfield Voke on Tuesday to qualify.
BUBBLE
Hopkins (8-9) - Needs to beat Greenfield Tuesday to give themselves a chance against Easthampton on Friday.
Monson (7-9) - Final four include McCann, Pathfinder, Palmer and Granby. Will beat McCann and Pathfinder. Won’t beat Palmer. It will come down to Granby, which beat the Mustangs 60-45 on Dec. 18.
St. Mary (6-10) - Will be eliminated tonight against Holyoke Catholic.
ELIMINATED
Westfield Voke (4-11), Mt. Everett (3-16), Pathfinder (4-11), Renaissance School (2-12), Smith Academy (3-13), Pioneer Christian (3-12), Ware (6-11)
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Click here for the high school standings.
Last week I broke down the probability of the bubble teams qualifying. This week with the bubble teams falling off a bit, I brke down the “Very Close” teams.
DIVISION 1
QUALIFIED
Sci-Tech (12-3), Chicopee (11-4), East Longmeadow (11-3), Northampton (13-2), Minnechaug (11-4)
VERY CLOSE
Central (9-6) - Should qualify with a victory over Amherst Regional on Friday.
Commerce (9-6) - Already beat Sci-Tech once so there is a good chance the Red Raiders could do it Friday. Most likely they qualify next Tuesday with a win over Cathedral.
West Springfield (8-7) - The Terriers next two are against South Hadley and Ludlow. The South Hadley game is on the road and its awfully tough to play in South Hadley. After that West Side has East Longmeadow, Northampton and Agawam to finish the season. My guess is they beat Ludlow and Agawam to qualify.
BUBBLE
Longmeadow (7-7)
Chicopee Comp (6-9)
Westfield (6-9)
ELIMINATED
Amherst (3-12), Agawam (3-12), Pittsfield (3-12), Ludlow (4-11), Cathedral (4-11), Putnam (4-11), Holyoke (4-11)
DIVISION 2
QUALIFIED
Palmer (12-4), Hoosac (13-3), Drury (13-3), South Hadley (6-7), Mohawk (10-5), Belchertown (11-6), Taconic (11-4), Wahconah (10-6)
VERY CLOSE
Hampshire (9-7) - Red Raiders have NLCS on Friday and Gateway on Tuesday. They fell by 11 to NLCS the first time but were in the game for a while. Most likely they qualify on Tuesday.
Mahar (8-6) - Two wins should come against Pioneer Christian on Feb. 11 and Smith Academy on Feb. 17.
BUBBLE
Holyoke Catholic (5-10)
Southwick (5-10)
Greenfield (5-10)
Monument (5-10) - The Spartans are one game back of Lee for second place in the Berkshire South. They have Greylock, St. Joseph, Drury and Lenox remaining.
Mount Greylock (4-10) - Greylock cannot reach .500 but they are two games back of Lee for second place in the Berkshire South. They have games remaining against Lee, Lenox, Monument and Wahconah.
ELIMINATED
Athol (1-15), Gateway (2-11)
DIVISION 3
QUALIFIED
Easthampton (10-5), Frontier (11-4), Lee (11-5), New Leadership (13-2), Sabis (15-1), St. Joseph (10-5), Turners Falls (11-4), Lenox (7-9), Pioneer Regional (10-4)
VERY CLOSE
(Apparently the road to the postseason leads through St. Mary)
McCann Tech (9-6) - Hornets have won five straight and should beat St. Mary’s on Friday to get in.
Granby (8-7) - Rams should beat Pathfinder (Feb. 10) and St. Mary’s (Feb. 12) next week to qualify.
Franklin (8-6) - FCT should beat Smith Voke on Friday and St. Mary’s on Tuesday to qualify.
Dean Tech (8-7) - Dean should be The Renaissance on Friday and Westfield Voke on Tuesday to qualify.
BUBBLE
Hopkins (7-9)
Ware (6-10)
Monson (6-9)
St. Mary (5-10)
ELIMINATED
Westfield Voke (4-10), Mt. Everett (3-16), Pathfinder (3-11), Renaissance School (2-11), Smith Academy (3-12), Pioneer Christian (3-11)
Thursday, January 29, 2009
I expect all the teams in the “Very Close” category to qualify. As for the teams on the bubble, I did not factor in second place in the league because that is way too complicated at this point. I also gave my prediction on which bubble teams will qualify. We will absolutely revisit this later.
DIVISION 1
QUALIFIED
Sci-Tech (10-3), Chicopee (10-3), East Longmeadow (10-3), Northampton (11-2)
VERY CLOSE
Central (9-5), Commerce (8-6), Minnechaug (8-4)
ON THE BUBBLE
Cathedral (4-9) - Best chance comes at second place in the league but mostly likely will be on the outside looking in with Central, Sci-Tech and Commerce the three likely Valley League reps. Best bet: 6-14
Westfield (5-7) - Off to a good start in league at 2-1. With Chicopee the likely favorite to win the league with Minnechaug in second, it comes down to the Bombers, Lancers and Colts fighting for wins. Best bet: 7-13
Chicopee Comp (6-7) - See Westfield. Best bet: 9-11
Longmeadow (5-7) - See Westfield. Best bet: 10-10
Putnam (4-9) - Chances are small. Best bet: 5-15
Ludlow (4-9) - Chances are small. Best bet: 4-16
West Springfield (7-6) - Terriers need three and should get them among Agawam twice, South Hadley and Ludlow. Bet bet: 11-9
Holyoke (3-9) – Purple Knights have a tough road ahead. Best bet: 4-16
ELIMINATED
Amherst (2-11), Agawam (2-11), Pittsfield (2-11)
DIVISION 2
QUALIFIED
Palmer (10-4), Hoosac (12-2), Drury (10-3),
VERY CLOSE
South Hadley (5-6, needs to beat either Southwick or Holyoke Catholic), Mohawk (9-4), Belchertown (9-6), Hampshire (8-6), Taconic (9-4), Wahconah (8-6)
ON THE BUBBLE
Mahar (6-6) - Senators looking at Athol, Pioneer Christian, Smith Academy and Greenfield as key games to win. Other four games are Easthampton, Frontier, Turners and Mohawk. Best bet: 10-10
Holyoke Catholic (4-8) - Needs six more wins and should beat Gateway, Southwick, St. Mary’s and Renaissance for four of them. That leaves two with South Hadley, Sabis, NLCS and Hampshire. It’s unlikely the Gaels beat Sabis and NLCS leaving big games next Monday against South Hadley (which can qualify with a win over Catholic), and the season finale against Hampshire. Best bet: 8-12
Greenfield (4-9) - The Wave need six wins and should get three against Smith Academy, Hopkins and Athol. Remained games include Easthampton, Mohawk, Pioneer Regional and Mahar. Not looking good. Best bet: 7-13
Monument (4-9) - Spartans need to upset either Taconic or Drury to give themselves a chance. Best bet: 7-13
Mount Greylock (4-8) - Mounties needs nine wins with a 18-game slate. Has St. Joseph, Drury, Monument, Lenox, Wahconah and Lee. Went 3-3 against these foes already. Best bet: 6-12
Southwick (5-8) - Rams need five wins and it will be very tough with Sabis twice, NLCS, Hampshire and South Hadley among their final seven games. Best bet: 6-14
ELIMINATED
Athol (1-13), Gateway (2-10)
DIVISION 3
QUALIFIED
Easthampton (10-3), Frontier (10-3), Lee (11-3), New Leadership (12-1), Sabis (13-1)
VERY CLOSE
Pioneer Regional (8-4), St. Joseph (9-4), Turners Falls (9-3)
ON THE BUBBLE
Granby (6-6) - Rams need four wins and should get them against Smith Vocational, Pathfinder, St. Mary’s and Pioneer Christian. Any slip up means they need to beat either Ware, Palmer, Belchertown or Monson. Best bet: 11-9
Hopkins (6-8) - Golden Hawks need four wins and has a brutal closing stretch against Pioneer Regional, Mohawk, Athol, Greenfield, Easthampton and Turners. They should beat Athol and Greenfield to give themselves a chance. Best best: 8-12
Monson (5-8) - Mustangs should take it to the wire. Needs four five wins among Belchertown, PVCS, Ware, McCann Tech, Pathfinder, Palmer and Granby. Best bet: 9-11
Ware (6-8) - Indians need four wins with Pittsfield, Granby, Palmer, Monson, Belchertown and PVCS. Best bet: 8-12
McCann Tech (7-6) - McCann is 6-1 and in first place in the Tri-County League. The Hornets should get in with at least 10 wins. Best bet: 12-8
Dean Tech (6-6) – Dean is 5-2 in the TCL and should get in with at least 10 wins. Best bet: 10-10
Franklin (7-5) – Franklin is 4-3 in the TCL and should get in with at least 10 wins. Best bet: 11-9
St. Mary (4-9) - Saints have a lot of work to do. Best bet: 6-14
Smith Vocational (4-8) - Vikings are in the Saints boat except need a little more help. Best bet: 6-12
Lenox (6-7) - Lenox qualified last year via the 70 percent rule and they can do it again this year. They may have qualified already but I haven’t been able to confirm it yet. The Millionaires have Taconic, Wahconah, Mt. Everett, St. Joe’s, Mt. Greylock, Lee and Monument left. They went 2-4 already this year.
Pioneer Christian (3-9) - PVCS needs to win out. Best bet: 4-15
Westfield Voke (3-8) - WVT needs to win out. Best bet: 5-13.
ELIMINATED
Mt. Everett (3-13), Pathfinder (2-10), Renaissance School (2-10), Smith Academy (2-11)
