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An updated look at UMass' NCAA chances



Tuesday, September 16, 2014
At 21-5, UMass would have to really collapse not to get in.

To see what NCAA Selection committee members will have in front of them when considering UMass, click here.

Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPIforecast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach the NCAA Tournament.

FROM RPIFORECAST.ComExpected RPI: 16.5Current RPI: 14Expected SOS: 40Current SOS: 39Current Record: 21-5Expected Record: 24-6Current Conf Record: 8-4Expected Conf Record: 11-5Probability of Auto Bid: 16.44%Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-0Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 4-2Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 7-3Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 8-1Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 3-0Current OOC Record: 13-1Expected OOC Record: 13-1Expected OOC RPI: 7Expected OOC SOS: 28

ESPN BPI

BPI: 28

BRACKETOLOGY

Lunardi Bracketology (Feb. 20 ): UMass is a No. 8 seed in Buffalo playing Stanford

Jerry Palm on CBS (Feb 23): No. 7 seed in Raleigh playing Cal

ESPN RPI NUMBERS

CONF. W-L 8-4LAST 12 8-4RPI 13 NON-CONF. W-L 13-1 vs. RPI TOP 25 2-0vs. D-1 21-5 NON-CONF. SOS 32 vs. RPI TOP 50 6-2NON-CONF. RPI 17 vs. RPI TOP 100 13-4SOS 44 SCORING MARGIN 6.80 vs. RPI TOP 150 14-4OPPONENT SOS 27 NEUTRAL W-L 5-1 vs. RPI SUB 150 7-1ROAD W-L 6-3

RPI FORECAST PROJECTIONS

BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 25-4WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 21-9Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents. Feb. 26 vs. URI - W March 1 at Dayton - ? - March 5 at Duquesne - W March 9 vs. SLU - ?

Prognosis: Currently 21-52 projected W's0 Projected L's 2 projected ?s

If UMass loses all ? games, but wins the projected W's, that's 23-7 record and a certain NCAA bid.

If UMass goes 2-2 the rest of the way, the Minutemen would also be 23-7.

If UMass wins only the games the computer has them as a 70 percent or better favorite, the Minutemen would be 23-7.