How did last week's loss affect UMass' NCAA Tournament chances? A computer analysis

Thursday, August 28, 2014
At 17-2, UMass' NCAA chances are still very much intact.

To see what NCAA Selection committee members will have in front of them when considering UMass, click here.

Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPIforecast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach the NCAA Tournament.

FROM RPIFORECAST.ComExpected RPI: 12.8Current RPI: 8Expected SOS: 43Current SOS: 31Current Record: 17-2Expected Record: 25-5Current Conf Record: 4-1Expected Conf Record: 12-4Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 1-1Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 4-2Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 9-2Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 9-0Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 3-0Current OOC Record: 13-1Expected OOC Record: 13-1Expected OOC RPI: 6Expected OOC SOS: 28


BPI: 20


Lunardi Bracketology (Jan. 23): UMass is a No. 5 seed in Spokane (West Region) playing Green Bay

Jerry Palm on CBS (Jan 27): No. 5 seed in Raleigh playing Green BaySports Illustrated (Jan. 27): No. 5 seed playing No. 12 SMU


Basketball State ranking: 11


AP RANK 21 CONF. W-L 4-1 LAST 12 10-2RPI 7 NON-CONF. W-L 13-1 vs. RPI TOP 25 0-0vs. D-1 17-2 NON-CONF. SOS 29 vs. RPI TOP 50 3-2vs. NON-D-1 0-0 NON-CONF. RPI 33 vs. RPI TOP 100 10-2SOS 39 SCORING MARGIN 9.40 vs. RPI TOP 150 11-2OPPONENT SOS 38 NEUTRAL W-L 5-1 vs. RPI SUB 150 6-0ROAD W-L 4-1


BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 28-2WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 17-13Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.Jan. 29 at St. Bonaventure - W - Feb. 1 at Saint Joseph's - W Feb. 5 vs. La Salle - W Feb. 9 at Rhode Island - W - Feb.12 vs. GMU - W Feb. 15 at GW - ? Feb. 21 vs. VCU -W - Feb. 26 vs. URI - W March 1 at Dayton - ? - March 5 at Duquesne - W March 9 vs. SLU - W

Prognosis: Currently 17-29 projected W's0 Projected L's 2 projected ?s

If UMass loses all both ? games, but wins the projected W's, that's 26-4 record and a high seed NCAA bid.

If UMass goes 6-5 the rest of the way, the Minutemen would be 23-7 and still very likely headed to the NCAA Tournament

If UMass wins only the games the computer has them as a 70 percent or better favorite, the Minutemen would be 22-8 and still likely NCAA bound.