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Path to Postseason - Dec. 4



Thursday, June 19, 2014
This does not include results from Dec. 4 games.



Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPIforecast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach postseason.By postseason I mean any tournament happening after the conference tournaments are over - NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT - I'm guessing a UMass team with a winning record gets a bid to one of those.UMass has 30 games on its schedule and at least one A-10 Tournament game. So a winning record means at least 16 wins.

Of course, the only tournament anyone will care about this year is the NCAA...Currently: 7-0WINS: BC, LSU, Youngstown State, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson, Eastern MichiganLOSSES:RPI: 1Sagarin Projected RPI: 16.1

BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 30-0WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 7-23Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.Dec. 7 vs. BYU - ? Dec. 14 vs. Northern Illinois - W - Most likely win according to predictor at 98 percent Dec. 18 at Ohio - ? Previously a W Dec. 21 at FSU - ? Dec. 28 vs. Providence - W Jan. 4 vs. Miami (Ohio) - W Jan. 8 vs. Saint Joseph's - W Jan. 11 vs. St. Bonaventure - W Jan. 15 at George Mason - W - Jan. 18 at Elon - W Jan. 22 at Richmond - ? Previously a W Jan. 26 vs. Fordham - W Jan. 29 at St. Bonaventure - W - Feb. 1 at Saint Joseph's - W - Previously a ? Feb. 5 vs. La Salle - W Feb. 9 at Rhode Island - W - Feb.12 vs. GMU - W Feb. 15 at GW - ? Feb. 21 vs. VCU -W - Feb. 26 vs. URI - W March 1 at Dayton - ? - Previously a W March 5 at Duquesne - W March 9 vs. SLU - W

Prognosis: Currently 7-0 18 projected W's0 Projected L's 5 projected ?s

If UMass loses all five ? games, but wins the projected W's, that's 25-5 record and not only an NCAA bid but a good seed.

If UMass goes 12-11 the rest of the way, the Minutemen are still likely headed to postseason.