Computer analysis of UMass' NCAA Tournament chances: Minutemen remain in good shape despite Saturday's loss

Monday, July 07, 2014
This does not include results from Dec. 23 games.

When I started doing this years ago, reaching the CBI would have been a pretty good goal for UMass, but now the only definition of success for this team is the NCAA Tournament, so I'm changing the title.

At 10-1, UMass' NCAA chances are still very much intact. Despite Saturday's loss, UMass' projected record from RPI Forecast hasn't gone down and it's expected RPI has actually improved from last week.

Using projected results (W,L, or ?) based on Jeff Sagarin's predictor from RPIforecast.com, I'll look at what UMass needs to do to reach the NCAA Tournament.

FROM RPIFORECAST.ComExpected RPI: 13.1Current RPI: 2Expected SOS: 55Current SOS: 5Current Record: 10-1Expected Record: 25-5Current Conf Record: 0-0Expected Conf Record: 12-4Expected Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-1Expected Record vs RPI 26-50: 3-1Expected Record vs RPI 51-100: 6-1Expected Record vs RPI 101-200: 9-1Expected Record vs RPI 200+: 4-0Current OOC Record: 10-1Expected OOC Record: 13-1Expected OOC RPI: 9Expected OOC SOS: 27


BPI: 5


Lunardi's S Curve - 19 (From Dec. 21)Lunardi Bracketology (Dec. 16): UMass is a No. 6 seed in Raleigh playing No. 11 Florida State


Basketball State ranking: 14


AP RANK 22 CONF. W-L 0-0LAST 12 10-1RPI 2NON-CONF. W-L 10-1 vs. RPI TOP 25 2-0vs. D-1 10-1NON-CONF. SOS 6vs. RPI TOP 50 3-1NON-CONF. RPI 21vs. RPI TOP 100 6-1SOS 1SCORING MARGIN 10.30vs. RPI TOP 150 9-1OPPONENT SOS 90NEUTRAL W-L 0-0vs. RPI SUB 150 1-0ROAD W-L 4-0


BEST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 29-1WORST POTENTIAL RECORD HEADING INTO A-10 TOURNAMENT: 10-20Date - Opponent - (Expected result according to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor. A "?" is anything game where UMass is given a 40-60 percent chance of winning) The projections will change based on UMass' results and those of their opponents.Dec. 28 vs. Providence - W Jan. 4 vs. Miami (Ohio) - W Highest projected remaining win 97 percent Jan. 8 vs. Saint Joseph's - W Jan. 11 vs. St. Bonaventure - W Jan. 15 at George Mason - W - Jan. 18 at Elon - W Jan. 22 at Richmond - W - up from ? Jan. 26 vs. Fordham - W Jan. 29 at St. Bonaventure - W - Feb. 1 at Saint Joseph's - W Feb. 5 vs. La Salle - W Feb. 9 at Rhode Island - W - Feb.12 vs. GMU - W Feb. 15 at GW - ? Feb. 21 vs. VCU -W - Feb. 26 vs. URI - W March 1 at Dayton - ? - March 5 at Duquesne - W March 9 vs. SLU - W

Prognosis: Currently 10-1 17 projected W's0 Projected L's 2 projected ?s

If UMass both ? games, but wins the projected W's, that's 27-3 record and not only an NCAA bid but a high seed.

If UMass goes 10-9 the rest of the way, the Minutemen would be 20-10 and still likely headed to postseason.

If UMass wins only the games the computer has them as a 70 percent or better favorite, the Minutemen would be 24-6 and still certainly NCAA bound.