Experts at Patrick summit say the economy is 'fixable,' but will be a tough job
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AMHERST - A baby blue jeep crushed under the weight of a toppled tree- this image, blown up on a big screen, is the one Timothy W. Brennan chose to portray as a visual representation of the Pioneer Valley's economy during his opening remarks at Friday's economic summit at the University of Massachusetts.
The jeep, the executive director of the Pioneer Valley Planning Commission explained to the audience of about 150 area business leaders and politicians, is an icon for the area economy: it's designed to travel on all terrains, but there are certain obstacles it can't surmount, namely the tree, aka the Great Recession, that's slammed through its top.
"The jeep is fixable, it isn't destroyed," said Brennan. "And I think that's where we're at, trying to figure out how we get our regional economy out of this stuck mode and to move on again."
Friday's summit was called by Gov. Deval L. Patrick, who attended the event along with a similar summit that morning in Springfield and a recovery event in Turners Falls later in the afternoon.
The summit brought together state officials including Patrick, Secretary of Housing and Economic Development Gregory P. Bialecki, and Secretary of Education S. Paul Reville, as well as economists and business leaders, to understand how the Valley has performed during the recession and map out a road to recovery for the region.
Speakers expressed optimism about where the local and state economy is heading, noting that due to the aging baby boom population, in just eight years there may be more jobs than people available to fill them.
"Things are not going to get worse. Things will, we hope, get better," said Barry Bluestone, a featured speaker Friday and dean of the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs at Northeastern University.
Among ideas voiced to improve the local economy were two aimed at attracting business: communities should have designated land for development purposes, and a pool of money available for workforce training.
Bluestone said when businesses are looking to relocate or establish a new operation, their top priority is choosing a place that will allow them to get started fast. Massachusetts needs to do a better job of clearing the permitting process and providing land for businesses. He said businesses are more interested in being able to set up shop fast than in tax breaks, union conditions or higher minimum wage standards, because if they don't start putting a product out, competitors will beat them to it.
To allow for this, speakers said communities should designate land that could immediately host businesses, and clear the way for necessary permit approval ahead of time so that a business could start operating within 75 days.
Community college presidents in the audience, Robert M. Pura of Greenfield Community College and Ira H. Rubenzahl of Springfield Technical Community College, also suggested creating an established pool of state money that could be doled out to support the quick development and implementation of training programs that could crank out a skilled workforce for a new business.
"I think it makes a lot of sense for us," Patrick said. He expressed support for both ideas.
"I am optimistic about where we are heading, and I know we have a tremendous amount of work to do," Patrick said. "The innovation industries - information technology, life sciences, clean energy and health care - these are the very sectors that are leading Massachusetts out of the recession faster and stronger than the rest of America."
Speakers said the Valley and the state economy is heading toward the light at the end of the recession's tunnel and that positive job news is on the way, with an ironic twist in 2018.
Nationwide about 15 million jobs are expected to be created within the next eight years, but only 10 million more people added to the workforce, said Bluestone. If people ages 60 and up don't stay in the workforce longer, there will be more jobs than workers toward the end of the decade.
To offset this anticipated employee drought, Massachusetts has to do a better job of attracting and retaining young people, he said. From 1999 to 2008 the number of workers ages 20-34 in Massachusetts decreased by 5.6 percent or 59,000 people, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"That means there will be great job opportunities, but also a need to do a great deal of retraining," Bluestone said. "We need to retain our young people and attract others to come here. It will be absolutely necessary to fill jobs and grow the economy. We'll be in a very different position in six, seven or eight years from now."
Job growth in the Pioneer Valley is likely to be focused in the area's dominant business sectors: health care, education and manufacturing. The health care and education sectors created 25,000 additional jobs statewide through the recession, Bluestone said. And although manufacturing jobs declined through much of the recession, the sector has added jobs over the last three months. In a survey of Massachusetts manufacturers, Bluestone said 60 percent of participants indicated they planned to expand employment in the next five years.
"Manufacturing is very important to this region, not just the region but the state," Bluestone said. "While Massachusetts lost a lot of its manufacturers, what we have now is both powerful and the fourth largest (business) sector in the state."
Brennan contrasted the picture of the crushed jeep with a photo of a bridge over the Connecticut River at sunset to illustrate the area's "sunny" window of economic opportunity.
But he noted there are threats that could derail the recovery. Among the factors that have the most potential to harm Massachusetts' economic recovery are a stagnant population leading to a worker shortage, continued poverty in urban areas, a decline in public education investment, and abandonment of a statewide plan to bring broadband Internet access to all areas of Massachusetts.
"The most important economic strategy, bar none, is what we do in education," Brennan said. "We're a knowledge-based economy."
Brennan said he is confident in the Pioneer Valley's ability to emerge from the recession stronger than it entered.
"My forecast is cautiously optimistic," he said.
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