Wednesday, March 17, 2010

This tournament is going to be defined by its inconsistent teams. The field is loaded with teams that at their best are capable of beating anybody, but their best is an occasional occurrence at best.

If Tennessee is the team that upset both Kentucky and Kansas, the Vols could make a deep run. If they play like the team that was throttled by Georgia and Southern California, Bruce Pearl's orange blazer could be shelved for the summer before the weekend.

Tennessee is hardly alone among the field's hit-or-miss teams. Maryland, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Villanova and Louisville have all been great at some points and very beatable at others.

The challenge will be to guess correctly which of inconsistent teams will rise to the moment.

Midwest

It's been well documented that being the No. 1 overall seed was no reward for No. 1 Kansas, which landed in a bracket with four teams which have upset No. 1 seeds including both teams (Tennessee and Oklahoma State) that beat the Jayhawks.

Seven schools in the Midwest have won national championships and five have played in the championship game this decade.

Early upset potential: San Diego State over Tennessee. I'm not picking this upset or any other in the first round, but the Volunteers are prone to long lapses and could be ripe for an underrated Aztec squad.

Don't fall into the trap of: Picking Houston. The Cougars are a trendy pick after upsetting the University of Texas at El Paso in the Conference USA final. But this is still a team that finished seventh in its conference and lost to Tulane (8-22) on March 6.

Best potential game: Kansas vs. Michigan State - The Jayhawks are the favorite to win it all, but Tom Izzo's Spartans historically peak in March.

Player who could single-handedly create an upset: James Anderson, Oklahoma State - The Big 12 Player of the Year could be matched up in a terrific battle with Ohio State's Evan Turner in the second round.

One and done: Lehigh, UNLV, New Mexico State, Houston, San Diego State, Ohio U, Georgia Tech, UC-Santa Barbara

Out after the second round: Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Maryland, Oklahoma State

Sweet 16: Almost everybody in your bracket is picking Kansas in the Final Four. March mainstay Michigan State can upset the Jayhawks and it's that sort of pick that wins a pool. Ohio State takes down Tennessee.

Regional final: Turner is playing like a player who can carry his team to a title. He'll carry the Buckeyes past the rival Spartans.

West

It was almost as if the selection committee decided to make this the showcase bracket for the non-BCS leagues as Gonzaga, Butler, UTEP, Xavier and Brigham Young are in the West.

I'm betting that Syracuse big man Arinze Onuaku, who suffered a knee injury in the Big East Tournament, will be an impact player again by the second weekend.

Early upset potential: UTEP over Butler. Murray State over Vanderbilt - I think both of these games could happen, but I'm afraid to pick both of them because that means putting a No. 12 or 13 into the Sweet 16, which seems like a bad idea.

Don't fall into the trap of: Falling in love with Gonzaga. Casual fans know that Gonzaga is among the best if not the best mid-major program in America, but they've been an unreliable tournament team and one that's unlikely to beat Syracuse on Sunday.

Best potential game: Syracuse-Gonzaga - Depending on whether Onuaku plays and how far from 100 percent he is, the Orange could be a little vulnerable. Wes Johnson of Syracuse and Matt Bouldin of Gonzaga won't guard each other, but any game that has them both on the court is bound to be entertaining.

Player who could single-handedly create an upset: Randy Culpepper, UTEP - The Miner is one of those guards who can put up big numbers if he gets hot. He had 45 against East Carolina and 39 against Central Florida.

One and done: Vermont, Florida State, UTEP, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Oakland, Florida, North Texas

Out after the second round: Gonzaga, Murray State, Pitt, BYU

Sweet 16: Syracuse defeats Butler. Kansas State over Xavier.

Regional final: I'm tempted to pick K-State over Syracuse, because most casual fans in the Northeast will blindly pick the Orange to win, but I think Syracuse plays as well together as anyone.

East

Can John Calipari take his third different school to the Final Four? Kentucky is certainly talented enough, but so many key players are tournament rookies. This will be John Wall's only NCAA Tournament appearance. Will he add to his legend?

Early upset potential: Washington over Marquette - The Pacific-10 has been much maligned, but Washington is playing well and the Golden Eagles' play fluctuates wildly.

Don't fall into the trap of: Picking Cornell over Temple. Cornell was the team everyone liked to pull an upset even before the bracket was announced. Be wary though. The Big Red haven't played a team of Temple's caliber in months.

Best potential game: West Virginia vs. Kentucky. Old rivals Bob Huggins and John Calipari meet in a game that will be as intense as any this year.

Player who could single-handedly create an upset: Anthony Johnson, Montana - His 42 points in the Big Sky final are why the Grizzlies are in the tournament at all. He and Darrington Hobson of New Mexico will rise out of obscurity Thursday night.

One and done: East Tennessee State, Wake Forest, Cornell, Wofford, Marquette, Montana, Clemson, Morgan State

Out after the second round: Texas, Wisconsin, Missouri, Washington

Sweet 16: West Virginia could crush New Mexico. Temple will give the Wildcats all they can handle, but Kentucky will eventually prevail.

Regional final: If West Virginia was in the West or the South, I might have picked the Mountaineers to make it to the Final Four, but Kentucky has clear advantages at point guard and center. That's too tough to overcome for West Virginia.

South

Louisville beat Syracuse in the last game of the regular season. If the Cardinals bounce Duke in the second round (although there's no guarantee Louisville will get there), this bracket, which looks well-suited for the Blue Devils, becomes a free-for-all.

Early upset potential: Old Dominion over Notre Dame; Utah State over Texas A&M; Siena over Purdue

Don't fall into the trap of: Taking Villanova deep. The Wildcats have been shaky down the stretch and the bracket is filled with bad matchups for them.

Best potential game: Duke vs. Louisville - Rick Pitino's team hasn't been consistent, but it has the talent to make this a scary game for the Blue Devils.

Player who could single-handedly create an upset: Jerome Randle, Cal - The Golden Bear guard's shooting ability will scare anyone Cal faces.

One and done: Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Louisville, Utah State, Purdue, Notre Dame. Sam Houston State, Saint Mary's, Robert Morris

Out after the second round: Villanova, Old Dominion, Siena, Cal

Sweet 16: Texas A&M will make life very difficult for Duke in a game played not far from the A&M campus and if I were bolder I'd pick an upset. But I'm going with the Blue Devils and will be mad at myself when the Aggies pull the upset. Baylor ends a nice little run by Richmond.

Regional final: Baylor has great guard play in Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn and a terrific rebounder-shot blocker in Epke Udoh. The Bears will knock off Duke and head to Indianapolis.

Final Four

Semifinals: Kentucky holds off Baylor in a terrific game, while Evan Turner outduels Wes Johnson.

Championship: When Jennifer Hudson belts out her final notes of "One Shining Moment," it will be Turner standing on the ladder with scissors in his hands.

*****

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