Not surprisingly, University of Massachusetts coach Derek Kellogg isn't worried yet about whether his team will make the Atlantic 10 Tournament. He's got 11 games and over a month before scoreboard watching becomes more urgent.

But unless the Minutemen start playing consistently better, getting to the tournament is going to be a risk, which is why the two games against Saint Joseph's are so important. UMass could conceivably finish ahead of the Hawks are a team, but if the Minutemen can't at least split those two games, getting into the tournament is going to get a little scary.

Only 12 of the conference's 14 teams make the field.

Most of the five remaining home games for UMass are against teams that would be favored to beat the Minutemen in any arena. And games against Duquesne and George Washington, two teams that have struggled, have an added degree of difficulty because they are on the road.

College basketball statistics wizard Ken Pomeroy, who runs the site Kenpom.com, projects wins and losses and a percentage of likelihood that a team could win a game, based on a statistical formula for every game all season. The projections change daily based on game results.

As of right now Pomeroy's formula has only one game - Feb. 14 vs. St. Joe's at the Mullins Center - as an expected win for the Minutemen. He gives UMass no more than a 37 percent chance to win any other game.

It's obviously not perfect at predicting. The Minutemen beat Memphis despite the computer giving UMass less than a 20 percent chance to win.

The Minutemen's inability to win a game in the Atlantic 10 Tournament has been an albatross around their neck for almost a decade. But to win a game in the tournament, they have to at least get there.

This could all be moot if UMass starts shooting well. The Minutemen have done enough other things effectively in spurts to leave hope for an eventual breakthrough. But for now, getting a win Wednesday night at Saint Joseph's could go a long way.

IS CHARLOTTE A CONTENDER? - While the Atlantic 10's top five teams have gotten plenty of attention, Charlotte also has quietly positioned itself as a contender in the conference and could even contend for an NCAA Tournament berth.

The 49ers are 14-5 with all five losses coming against teams in the top 50 of the RPI. They boast wins over Louisville and Richmond. A strong conference record and a couple of wins in the A-10 Tournament could make them an interesting candidate for the NCAA committee to consider.

FASTER THAN EXPECTED - Kellogg has seen John Calipari's program-building up close at UMass as a player and Memphis as an assistant, but even he wasn't expecting Calipari to get Kentucky to No. 1 in his first season.

"It was just matter of time. That was a little quicker than I thought, but nothing surprises me with John Calipari," Kellogg said. "He has #it' Nobody knows what #it' is, but he has it and I'm super happy for him. It's well deserved."

The Wildcats, the nation's only undefeated team, rose to No. 1 in both polls Monday. Calipari took both UMass and Memphis to No. 1 as well.

He's just the second coach in college basketball history to lead three different No. 1 schools, joining Frank McGuire, who did it at St. John's, North Carolina and South Carolina.

SHOELESS JOHN - La Salle coach John Giannini became the latest Division I coach to work barefoot during a game, as he coached shoeless in Saturday's 84-82 loss to Charlotte. Coaches from around Division I are exposing their toes to bring awareness to Samaritan's Feet which is raising money and footwear for victims of the Haiti earthquake.

Charlotte coach Bobby Lutz coached shoeless in a game earlier this season.

Samaritan's Feet is a charity championed by Indiana-Purdue-Indianapolis coach Ron Hunter, who has coached barefoot at least once a season and helped send shoes to Africa.

After the earthquake the group is sending some shoes to the Caribbean Island as well.

Interested donors can learn more at www.samaritansfeet.org.

GAMES OF THE WEEK:Rhode Island at Dayton, Tuesday, 7 p.m. - With Temple and Xavier the conference front-runners, the Rams and Flyers are two teams that could be competing for seeds in the Atlantic 10 Tournament and perhaps a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Temple at Charlotte, Wednesday, 7 p.m. - The 49ers can be an immediate conference and postseason contender if they can upset the Owls.

PLAYERS OF THE WEEK - Andrew Nicholson of St. Bonaventure earned the player of the week honor after averaging 27.5 points, seven rebounds and 3.5 blocked shots in two games, including 26 points seven rebounds and five blocks against UMass.

The Minutemen will have to face this week's rookie of the week on Saturday as Chris Braswell of Charlotte picked up the honor after averaging 15.3 points and 10.3 rebounds in two 49er wins.

POLL CLIMBING - Temple (17-3), 5-0 A-10) moved up to No. 15 in both polls after winning two games last week.

Information from personal interviews, newspaper articles and sports information releases was used in this report.

Matt Vautour can be reached at mvautour@gazettenet.com. Follow UMass coverage on Twitter at twitter.com/GazetteUMass. Get UMass coverage delivered in your Facebook news feed at http://www.facebook.com/GazetteUMassCoverage.